ASYMMETRY® Observations
ASYMMETRY® Observations are Mike Shell’s observations of all things asymmetry, asymmetric risk/reward, asymmetric payoffs, and asymmetric investment returns.
Original thinking on markets, risk, and asymmetric investing — delivered the moment it publishes.
Read the latest.
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Weakening Trend, Options Expiry, and Systematic Flows Create an Asymmetric Risk-Reward Skewed to the Downside
Building on last week’s market insight, “The Trend Remains Up for the Stock Market, But Risk is Increasing,” here’s my latest observations of where things stand now. The S&P 500…
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Hedge Funds are Getting Selective: Insights from Hedge Fund Positioning in Early 2025
Goldman Sachs’ latest Hedge Fund Trend Monitor offers a deep dive into the positioning of 695 hedge funds, managing $3.1 trillion in gross equity positions. The report reveals key shifts…
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The Trend Remains Up for the Stock Market, But Risk is Increasing as the Trend is Weakening
The S&P 500 stock index remains in an uptrend. No extreme bullish or bearish momentum, but price stability suggests continuation unless a significant breakout or breakdown occurs. Weak trend strength…
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Asymmetric Risk/Reward is More Than Just Buying Undervalued Stocks
Many investors believe they are pursuing asymmetric opportunities when they buy stocks they think are undervalued or have more upside than downside. But true asymmetry isn’t just about perceived valuation gaps—it’s about structuring…
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Getting Technical About the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index
This chart of the S&P Equal Weight Index (SPXEW) includes a linear regression channel, RSI, and ATR percentage indicators to analyze its current trend, momentum, and volatility. Linear Regression Channel…
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Communication Services are in an Uptrend
In analyzing the Communication Services Select Sector Index for asymmetric risk-reward, the chart illustrates recent strength as the price has pushed beyond the upper boundary of the upward channel. This…
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Bullish Breakout in Consumer Cyclicals
In analyzing the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector Index for asymmetric risk-reward, the chart reveals strong bullish momentum as the price has recently broken above the upper channel boundary. This breakout…
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Analyzing the Trend, Momentum, and Volatility of the Consumer Staples Sector
In analyzing the Consumer Staples Select Sector Index for asymmetric risk-reward, the chart shows recent price action approaching the lower boundary of a downward-sloping channel, suggesting a period of weakness.…
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Analyzing the Industrials Sector Trend, Momentum, and Volatility for Asymmetric Risk Return
This chart displays the performance of the Industrials Select Sector Index to analyze its asymmetric risk-reward. The chart indicates an upward trend channel, where the price has reached the upper…
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The Materials Sector Trend, Momentum, and Volatility
This chart of the Materials Select Sector Index (SIXB) includes a linear regression channel, RSI, and ATR percentage indicators, providing insights into its trend, momentum, and volatility to analyze its…
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Declining Interest Rates are a Return Driver for Utility Stocks But Focus on the Asymmetric Risk Reward
Declining interest rates are a return driver for real estate stocks, but we focus on the trend, momentum, and volatility to analyze its asymmetric risk-reward. This chart of the Real Estate…
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Interest Rates Impact Utility Stocks, But We Focus on Trend, Momentum, and Volatility for Asymmetric Risk Reward
Rising and falling interest rates have an impact on utility stocks, but we focus on the trend, momentum, and volatility to analyze its asymmetric risk-reward. This chart of the Utilities Select…