ASYMMETRY® Observations
ASYMMETRY® Observations are Mike Shell’s observations of all things asymmetry, asymmetric risk/reward, asymmetric payoffs, and asymmetric investment returns.
Original thinking on markets, risk, and asymmetric investing — delivered the moment it publishes.
Read the latest.
-
What the Fear & Greed Index is Telling Us Today—and How It Can Be Used for Tactical Trading and Risk Management
What the Fear & Greed Index is Telling Us Today—and How It Can Be Used for Tactical Trading and Risk Management The Fear & Greed Index, a sentiment gauge developed…
-
Why “It Hasn’t Happened in 100 Years” Doesn’t Mean It Won’t Happen: The Case of Milton and Tampa Bay
As Hurricane Milton is forecasted to potentially hit Tampa Bay, I’m reminded of the many times friends in Tampa Bay would comfort themselves with a common belief: “It’s been 100…
-
When Probability Conflicts with Robust Risk Management
Probability theory is a powerful tool that helps us understand the likelihood of events. However, when it comes to managing risks in real life—whether in finance, business, or disaster preparedness—simply…
-
Is the U.S. Stock Market at an Elevated Risk Level? What Can We Do About It?
Is the U.S. Stock Market at an Elevated Risk Level? What Can We Do About It? As market participants, we’re often curious about whether the U.S. stock market is at…
-
Today’s VIX Futures Term Structure: A Contango with Insights
As of today, the VIX futures term structure reveals an ongoing contango condition, as seen in the chart. The front month (October) futures contract is priced at 20.95, higher than…
-
What’s the Fear & Green Index Telling Us About Investor Sentiment?
The current Fear & Greed Index is at 66, indicating “Greed” in the market. This level reflects growing optimism among investors, but understanding how each factor contributes to this score…
-
What is the VIX Futures Term Structure Telling Us?
The VIX futures term structure in this chart illustrates the market’s expectations for future volatility based on the pricing of VIX futures contracts for different months. Here are some key…
-
Why is September a historically weak month for stocks and risk assets?
Why is September a historically weak month for stocks and risk assets? September is historically weak for global equities and risk assets due to a combination of behavioral, technical, and…
-
Entering the Seasonally Weak Period for the Stock Market
The stock market tends to exhibit certain seasonal patterns, where some months historically perform worse than others. Here’s a general overview: 1. September: Historically the Worst Month: September has the…
-
The Single Best Argument Against Taxing Unrealized Capital Gains
The single best argument against taxing unrealized gains is the liquidity issue. Unrealized Gains Lack Cash Flow: When gains are unrealized, the asset owner hasn’t actually received any cash. Taxing…
-
Is a capital gains tax on unrealized gains the same as property tax?
A capital gains tax on unrealized gains and property tax are not the same, though both are forms of taxation. Here’s how they differ: Capital Gains Tax on Unrealized Gains:…
-
Understanding Wealth Beyond Numbers: A Review of The Psychology of Money
In The Psychology of Money, Morgan Housel invites readers to explore the often-overlooked emotional and psychological aspects of wealth. Far from being a typical finance book filled with charts and…