ASYMMETRY® Observations
ASYMMETRY® Observations are Mike Shell’s observations of all things asymmetry, asymmetric risk/reward, asymmetric payoffs, and asymmetric investment returns.
Original thinking on markets, risk, and asymmetric investing — delivered the moment it publishes.
Read the latest.
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What are the Risks of Backtesting Investment and Trading Strategies
Over twenty years ago, someone asked me “how do you know your trend systems will be profitable if market conditions aren’t the same as they have been?” From that point,…
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A directional, multi-dimensional momentum of the U.S. stock market for trend following
The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 1.9% this week, led by the materials sector. We’ve been studying and trading momentum for 25 years and always emphasize the basics. These…
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Stock Market Resumes its Uptrend
The six month trend of the S&P 500 stock market index says it all. Mike Shell
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Debt by State 2023 Shows Some Like it Hot
The more we mess around, the more we find out. I got to messing around in a debate about all the people moving from northern states like New York, Illinois,…
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Linear Regression Indicates Interest Rates Have Entered a New Higher Regime
Linear regression is a statistical method used to predict future trends from past data. Similar to a moving average, quantitative investment managers may use simple linear regression to define when prices…
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Renaissance Technologies, Considered the “Best Money Manager on Earth”, Uses Technical Indicators to Drive its Automated Trading Systems
Shell Capital Management, LLC uses “technical indicators” to drive its trading systems for trend following and countertrend signals, and we are in great company. What Is a Technical Indicator? “Technical…
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U.S. Sector Trend Following February 19, 2023
In yesterday’s U.S. Stock Market Trend Following as of February 18, 2023, I looked at the trend direction and historical realized volatility of the S&P 500 stock index. Let’s look at…
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U.S. Stock Market Trend Following as of February 18, 2023
If you’re an investor with hard earned money at stake, you need to know the current market state such as the trend, momentum, and volatility. Even if we make our…
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We Could Strangle the VIX
The Cboe VIX Strangle IndexSM (STRG) is inspired by the option strangle strategy. According to Cboe, the objective of a strangle is to capture the volatility premium inbedded in…
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Nothing Like a Price Trend to Change Investor Sentiment
The U.S. stock market has got off to a strong start for 2023, so far. Investor sentiment is trend following . Below is a chart template I call “Trend Following…
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China’s Balloon Looked Like Pre-Invasion Reconnaissance to Me
With all the news surrounding China lately, I encourage you to watch this video from Ray Dalio, co-founder of Bridgewater Associates, the largest hedge fund manager in the world. Ray…
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Trend Following Natural Gas and Heating Oil
Nat gas, short street name for Natural Gas, has crashed since December. S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index provides investors with a reliable and publicly available benchmark for investment performance in…