ASYMMETRY® Observations

JP Morgan’s outlook focuses on three very different scenarios, with a baseline (40% probability) of seeing the building drag from an expected 5% fed funds rate and a rising US…

The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is an index of the prevailing direction of economic trends in the manufacturing and service sectors. It consists of a diffusion index that summarizes whether market conditions,…

The Federal Reserve has been implementing Quantitative Easing (QT) to manipulate the money supply in the economy since 2008. It seems they’ve gone too far and should have stopped long…

Global bonds joined the the U.S. in signaling a recession, with a global yield curve inverting for the first time in at least two decades.

The U. S. stock market has trended down as expected after tapping its 200-day moving average.  I shared this observation last week on Twitter:  And today, it looks like we…

Many companies offer employer-issued stock as a benefit, in addition to other compensation and benefits. But what happens if you leave a job that offered you employer-issued stock or if…

At its lowest point so far on October 12th, the S&P 500 stock index was down -25% for the year in 2022.  Since October 12th, the stock index has gained …

Volatility measures the frequency and magnitude of price movements, both up and down, that a financial instrument experiences over a certain period of time. The more dramatic the price swings…

I want to preface this sector trends update with how we use it. We sometimes trade exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that aim to track an index, but we also have our…

It was a big week for the U.S. stock market with a strong countertrend cycle swing to the upside, but the primary trend remains down, or does it?  S&P 500…

Artificial intelligence is being marketed as a crystal ball. That framing misses the point — and creates risk. Markets are not prediction problems. They are complex, adaptive systems driven by…