Author: Mike Shell
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The REAL Length of the Average Bull Market
How long is the average bull market and bear market? With the current bull market in stocks at its 54th month, I’ve been hearing several different statistics thrown around lately about the “average” length of… Read More
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Our beliefs create our world
“You experience what you believe unless you believe you won’t, in which case you don’t, which means you did.” – Harry Palmer Read More
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Volatility Index VIX Shows Implied Volatility is Lower In September
Although September is often the worst month of the entire year for the stock market, so far, August was worse. And, The term structure for VIX shows that implied (or expected) volatility was actually higher… Read More
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Using September to Understand Probability and Expectation.
From 1928-2012 the S&P 500 was up 39 months and down 46 months. It’s down 55% of the time in September… Dow Jones Industrial Average 1886-2004 (116 years) 49 years the Dow was down, in… Read More
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Momentum as a stand alone investment strategy
One observation I regularly share is the constant flow of research papers and books about topics I am interested in. Specifically, these topics are listed on the “About” page, but they are primarily those with… Read More
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September is statistically the worst month for the stock market
September is statistically the worst month of the year for the stock market. Going back to 1928, the S&P 500 has lost -1.12% on average in September. There seems to be plenty of news that… Read More
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Stocks and Bonds in a Short Term Downtrend
The broad global market indexes declined during August. Global stocks, represented by $SPX, EFA, and EEM below, declined -4% or more during the month. The broad bond index (AGG) declined too. EFA: iShares MSCI EAFE… Read More
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Asymmetry in Unemployment
There is a clear correlation between the level of education and unemployment. College graduates is 3.8% while those with less than a high school degree is 11.1%! Read More
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133 Years of Long Term Interest Rates
Another incredible observation of long term interest rates comes from Shiller’s database. The red line is the trend in long term interest rates. Interest rates peaked in 1981. That would have been an incredible time… Read More