Author: Mike Shell
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Markets don’t always react the way investors expect, so I focus on what is actually happening
I noted the below question and answer between Jack Schwager and Ray Dalio in Jack’s book “Hedge Fund Market Wizards: How Winning Traders Win” (2012). Ray Dalio is the founder of Bridgewater, the largest hedge… Read More
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VIX® gained 140%: Investors were too complacent
Several months ago I started sharing some of my observations about the VIX ( CBOE Volatility Index). The VIX had gotten to a level I considered low, which implied to me that investors were too… Read More
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Today Was the Kind of Panic Selling I Was Looking For
I mentioned in “Fear is Driving Stocks Down, or is Declining Stocks Driving Fear?” that falling prices could lead to panic selling and it may require some panic selling to push prices low enough to bring… Read More
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Fear is Driving Stocks Down, or is Declining Stocks Driving Fear?
The last time I pointed out a short-term measure of extreme investor sentiment was August 4, see “Extreme Fear is Now the Return Driver“. At that time, popular stock indexes had declined -3% or more… Read More
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Trend Change in Dollar, International Stocks, Gold?
Directional trends tend to persist. When a price is trending, it’s more likely to continue than to reverse. A directional trend is a drift up or down. For example, we can simply define a uptrend… Read More
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Global Market Trends and Returns 3rd Quarter 2014
The end of a quarter is a popular time for investors to review what happened over the past three months. Below we review some three-month price trends to get an idea of the direction and… Read More
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Interest Rates and Dollar Rising, Commodities Falling
I believe an edge I have developed as a global tactical investment manager over the past two decades is a strong understanding how markets interact with each other and their return drivers, but most important… Read More
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What’s the Fed Going to Do Next?
The talk about what the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (“the Fed”) will do next is a fascinating example of investor behavior. The days leading up the Fed meeting and decision announcement is filled with… Read More
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Trend Following Doesn’t Always Mean Crowd Following
“Trading has taught me not to take the conventional wisdom for granted. What money I made in trading is testimony to the fact that the majority is wrong a lot of the time. The vast majority is wrong… Read More
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Extreme Fear is Now the Return Driver
A professional investment adviser recently passed along some materials and asked for my opinion about a “tactical model” offered by another money manager. I was surprised that they expect great results from their model when… Read More