Category: Absolute Return Investment
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Global Macro observations and the period of indecision ends with an upside breakout in stocks
In the last observation, The stock market is in a period of indecision that it will break out of I shared: Looking at the price trend of the S&P 500 index over the past six… Read More
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“THEY KNOW NOTHING!”
Today marks the 12 year anniversary of the Jim Cramer character on CBNC having his now-famous emotional breakdown on live TV. It’s worth listening to once a year to reflect on the extreme level of… Read More
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Systems trading is ultimately discretionary. The manager still has to decide how much risk to accept, which markets to play, and how aggressively to increase and decrease the trading base as a function of equity change. These decisions are quite important – often more important than trade timing.”
–Ed Seykota in Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders By Jack D. Schwager Read More
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Fear is Driving Stock Trend…
Fear is now driving the stock market. As prices fall, investor sentiment indicators suggest that fear increases as prices fall. When sentiment gets to an extreme it often reverses, or it can become contagion and drive… Read More
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Seasonal Alpha? The Real Probability and Expectation of “Sell in May and Go Away”
Here is the trouble with a seasonal strategy. According to Standard & Poors, the S&P 500 has gained 1.05 % in May, though it was a volatile month. So, “sell in May and go away”… Read More
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Allocation to Stocks and Bonds is Unlikely to Give us What We Want
That was the lesson you learned the last time stocks became overvalued and the stock market entered into a bear market. I believe holding and re-balancing markets doesn’t give us the risk-adjusted returns we want.… Read More
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On Actively Managing Risk… and Persistence
Source: https://image-store.slidesharecdn.com/c3d3d5ae-e2eb-4e80-9d4c-88e2344b5572-original.jpeg I just keep doing what I do… Read More
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Where is the Inflation?
In How does monetary policy influence inflation and employment? and bond prices… I pointed out that even the Fed expected their monetary policy to eventually lead to inflation. The problem with economics and economist is they… Read More
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How does monetary policy influence inflation and employment? and bond prices…
Straight from the Federal Reserve website titled How does monetary policy influence inflation and employment? In the short run, monetary policy influences inflation and the economy-wide demand for goods and services–and, therefore, the demand for… Read More
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My 2 Cents on the Dollar, Continued…
In My 2 Cents on the Dollar I explained how the U.S. Dollar is a significant driver of returns of other markets. For example, when the U.S. Dollar is rising, commodities like gold, oil, and foreign… Read More