Category: Absolute Return
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The Market Isn’t Just Expensive. It’s Dependent.
Valuation is the wrong frame. Not because it doesn’t matter. Because it doesn’t tell you what the market is depending on. Read it here. Read More
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From an investor sentiment perspective, is this what 2017 felt like? (before the crash in 2018)
Someone asked, “From a sentiment perspective, is this what 2017 felt like?” My observation: https://shell-capital.com/asymmetric-investment-returns/tennessee-investment-advisor-investor-sentiment Read More
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Oops a whipsaw
I tend to focus on risk management in these occasional observations I share. My focus is on risk management because that’s my edge. If I can direct and control my possibility of loss through tactical… Read More
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Investing in stocks involves risks you must be willing to bear, or actively manage and hedge
It is widely accepted that a portfolio diversified across a number of stocks will provide an inherent return over time, that buying and holding stocks for the long term is virtuous and pragmatic, and that… Read More
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The stock market trend is being tested
The stock market is now reaching its first short-term higher probability of a countertrend pullback. The S&P 500 stock index tapped its 200-day average and reached a short-term overbought level based on relative strength and… Read More
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The stock market is at an inflection point
The S&P 500 is stalling as if there is resistance at this price level, and there’s a lot of potential supply for those in a loss trap. It’s also getting overbought as measured by the… Read More
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After Selling Pressure Drives Stock Price Trends to a Low Enough Level, We’ll See Sentiment Shift
Once the stock market catches a break and trends up enough, we’ll probably see short covering keep it going for a while. The percent of stocks trading above their 50 and 200 day averages is… Read More
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Inflation is Declining According to this Trend Analysis of Commodities
In economics, inflation is an increase in the prices of goods and services in an economy. When the general price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services; consequently, inflation corresponds to… Read More
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Fundamental Valuation: Is the Stock Market Cheap or Expensive?
For me, and everyone else even if they don’t realize it, the price trend is the final arbiter. For more than two decades, I’ve focused my efforts on developing systems to identify trends early in… Read More