Category: Actively Manage Risk
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From an investor sentiment perspective, is this what 2017 felt like? (before the crash in 2018)
Someone asked, “From a sentiment perspective, is this what 2017 felt like?” My observation: https://shell-capital.com/asymmetric-investment-returns/tennessee-investment-advisor-investor-sentiment Read More
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Investing in stocks involves risks you must be willing to bear, or actively manage and hedge
It is widely accepted that a portfolio diversified across a number of stocks will provide an inherent return over time, that buying and holding stocks for the long term is virtuous and pragmatic, and that… Read More
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Observations of the Stock Market Trend, Bond Market, and Investor Sentiment
Nothing drives investor sentiment like a strong price trend. The S&P 500 stock index is down over -20% this year, and it was down -24% YTD just two weeks ago. The stock index peaked at… Read More
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The stock market tapped its prior high, then backed off
On Friday I suggested “If we’re going to see selling pressure become resistance, this is where it starts” and though this has been an incredibly resilience market, I’m seeing signs of weakness. I shared some of… Read More
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Panic selling drove a waterfall decline and washout for the stock market
Growing up in East Tennessee and the Great Smoky Mountains, I observed a lot of waterfalls. Wiki says a fall of water is an area where water flows over a vertical drop or a series… Read More
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Dow Jones is down -10% off its high
Dow Jones is down -10% off its high. I don’t pay much attention to the Dow Jones Industrial Average as it’s a price-weighted index of 30 stocks. But, the S&P 500 capitalization-weighted index of approximately… Read More
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19 is the new 20, but is this a new low volatility regime?
We used to say the long term average for the Cboe Volatility Index VIX is 20. Some would mistakenly say that VIX “reverts to the mean”, suggesting it is drawn to the average level of… Read More
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What’s the stock market going to do next?
Last week, I ended “You probably want to invest in stocks” with: Is it a good time to buy stocks? That’s my next observation as I’ll share the big picture. As promised, here is my… Read More
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Investor sentiment is dialed up with stock trends
I believe there are many factors that drive stock prices and one of them is investor sentiment. However, enthusiasm and panic can also reach extremes, which drives the opposite trend. When investors are extremely bullish… Read More
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After a strong year like 2019, investors should prepare for what could be the opposite in 2020 and it doesn’t seem they are
After nearly a -20% waterfall decline last October through December, in “An exhaustive analysis of the U.S. stock market” a year ago today I wrote: “Someday in the future, stock investors will be giddy again… Read More