Category: Asymmetric Hedging
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I don’t always comment on economic indicators, but when I do, it’s a trend like ISM Manufacturing Index
The ISM Manufacturing Index monitors changes in production levels from month to month and is considered an important economic indicator by many global macro investment managers. Some of them consider a level above 50 as… Read More
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Implied volatility as measured by VIX indicates a volatility expansion in the near term
Implied volatility as measured by VIX indicates wider prices in the near term. The CBOE Volatility Index VIX has increased to 20, which is it’s long term average, suggesting prices will spread out to 20%.… Read More
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Charting and technical analysis of the stock market trend
I usually share more of my observations of the stock market trend when the shit hits the fan. The truth is, I enjoy volatility expansions more than the quiet, calm trends. There isn’t as much… Read More
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Asymmetry in the CBOE Index Put/Call Ratio suggests hedging
I pointed out yesterday the Stock market internals are signaling an inflection point. On a short term basis, some internal indicators are suggesting the stock market is at a point I expect to see a more significant breakout… Read More
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Observations of the stock market decline and volatility expansion
On September 25th I shared in VIX level shows market’s expectation of future volatility when I pointed out a low level of expected volatility as implied by the VIX index. I said: The current level of the… Read More
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The Stock Market Trend
The stock market declined with heavy selling pressure on a major stock market anniversary that I haven’t heard anyone mention. October 10, 2018, is the 10-year anniversary of the waterfall decline of 2008. Below is the… Read More
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The volatility expansion continues like tropical storm Michael that could become a hurricane
The volatility expansion observation I shared last week has continued. If you haven’t followed along, I suggest reading VIX level shows the market’s expectation of future volatility and Here comes the volatility expansion to see where I am coming from. Implied… Read More
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Here comes the volatility expansion
Nine days ago in VIX level shows market’s expectation of future volatility I shared an observation that the implied volatility VIX, a measure of expected future volatility that is implied by option prices, had reached an extremely low… Read More
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Asymmetry of Loss: Why Manage Risk?
“The essence of portfolio management is the management of risks, not the management of returns.” —Benjamin Graham Why actively manage investment risk? Why not just buy and hold markets and ride through their large drawdowns?… Read More
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Is it a stock pickers market?
Sometimes the stock market is trending so strongly that the rising tide lifts all boats. No matter what stocks or stock fund you invest in, it goes up. That was the case much of 2017.… Read More