Category: Asymmetric Observation

Markets don’t move in isolation. They interact. Equities, rates, volatility, options, and liquidity form a system where pressure in one area transmits into others. Understanding those interactions—who is forced to act, when risk accelerates, and… Read More

Many strategies look asymmetric—until volatility exposes what was hidden. True asymmetry starts with defined risk and leaves upside open. The difference is geometry, not storytelling. Read: True Asymmetry vs. False Asymmetry in Investment Management Read More

Having traded options for thirty years, I’ve seen the same pattern repeat across decades and market regimes: what looks like consistency is often just risk being deferred. A strategy can look disciplined, consistent, and “low… Read More

Nassim Nicholas Taleb argues that most so-called “alpha” isn’t real because it ignores the most important variable in investing: survival through time. Strategies that look impressive based on historical averages often conceal a small probability… Read More

This observation was originally published at Shell Capital’s ASYMMETRY® Observations. The S&P 500 dividend yield has dropped to 1.25%, one of the lowest readings in more than two decades. That’s 31% below its long-term average… Read More

We pursue what we refer to as “drawdown control” through individual position risk management, portfolio heat limits, and portfolio hedging for risk mitigation.  Compounding efficiency isn’t about how much we make—it’s about how much we keep… Read More

Investment drawdowns from market losses work geometrically against you. Losses don’t scale linearly—they scale exponentially in how they hurt compounding. Read it here: Drawdowns from Market Losses Work Geometrically Against You Read More

VIX Futures Still in Backwardation: What This Shift Tells Us Now The VIX futures curve continues to send a clear message: volatility remains elevated, and the market still expects it to fade—but not just yet.… Read More

To compound capital efficiently over time, downside risk must be actively mitigated. The key to long-term wealth creation isn’t just capturing upside—it’s protecting capital through asymmetric risk/reward positioning and strict portfolio risk exposure limits. Read… Read More