Category: Asymmetry ETF
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Wrong narrative? Feeling the Bern of socialism may have been even scarier
Yesterday, after the “emergency” interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the US stock market trended down to close -2.8%. Top news headlines looked like this: They were rather alarming, the largest since the financial crisis,… Read More
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Dow Jones is down -10% off its high
Dow Jones is down -10% off its high. I don’t pay much attention to the Dow Jones Industrial Average as it’s a price-weighted index of 30 stocks. But, the S&P 500 capitalization-weighted index of approximately… Read More
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Volatility is expanding, a little
To no surprise, the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index that represents the market’s expectation of 30-day forward-looking volatility, is trending up. So far, it isn’t much of a volatility expansion, but it’s elevated somewhat higher… Read More
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Asymmetry in yield spreads, inverted yield curve warning shot, and unemployment
The 10-2 Treasury Yield Spread is the difference between the 10-year treasury rate and the 2-year treasury rate. A 10-2 treasury spread that approaches zero indicates a “flattening” yield curve. A flattening yield curve is… Read More
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The S&P 500 stock market index is holding the line
The stock index is holding the line so far. You can see the percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50 day moving average closed at 30% last week. It’s also testing a low… Read More
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Argentina stock market loss is a reminder of single country ETF risk
If we looked at the MSCI Argentina ETF on July 4th, its gains year to date were astonishing. Below is a chart of both iShares MSCI Argentina & Global Exposure ETF (AGT) and Global X… Read More
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A few observations on Global Macro and Trend Following
A few observations on #GlobalMacro and #TrendFollowing As I see it, trend following can be global macro and global macro can be trend following. I call my primary strategy “global tactical,” which is an unconstrained,… Read More
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Asymmetry in the CBOE Index Put/Call Ratio suggests hedging
I pointed out yesterday the Stock market internals are signaling an inflection point. On a short term basis, some internal indicators are suggesting the stock market is at a point I expect to see a more significant breakout… Read More
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Stock Market Observations
The S&P 500 stock index retests October low for the third time. It is only 1.2% above the February and April low, but so far holding the line. We would expect to see some potential… Read More