Category: Critical Thinking
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Asymmetric Nature of Losses and Loss Aversion
Loss Aversion: “In prospect theory, loss aversion refers to the tendency for people to strongly prefer avoiding losses than acquiring gains. Some studies suggest that losses are as much as twice as psychologically powerful as… Read More
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US Government Bonds Rise on Fed Rate Outlook?
I saw the following headline this morning: US Government Bonds Rise on Fed Rate Outlook Wall Street Journal – “U.S. government bonds strengthened on Monday after posing the biggest price rally in more than three months… Read More
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Dazed and Confused?
Many investors must be dazed and confused by the global markets reaction to the Fed. I’m guessing most people would expect if the Fed signaled they are closer to a rate hike the stock and… Read More
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A One-Chart Preview of Today’s Fed Decision: This is what economists are expecting
I can’t image what it must be like sitting around watching and reading the news trying to figure out what the Fed is going to do next. Even if they could know, they still don’t… Read More
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Diversification Alone is No Longer Sufficient to Temper Risk…
That was the lesson you learned the last time stocks became overvalued and the stock market entered into a bear market. In a Kiplinger article by Fred W. Frailey interviewed Mohamed El-Erian, the PIMCO’s boss,… Read More
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This is When MPT and VaR Get Asset Allocation and Risk Measurement Wrong
I was talking to an investment analyst at an investment advisory firm about my ASYMMETRY® Global Tactical and he asked me what the standard deviation was for the portfolio. I thought I would share with… Read More
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The State of the Union: What You Need to Read First
Image source: here Before you listen to the State of the Union address tonight, consider reading this very closely: “Happiness is not to be achieved at the command of emotional whims. Happiness is not the… Read More
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The One Thing: The Surprisingly Simple Truth Behind Extraordinary Results
I had a two-hour interview with someone yesterday (that will be available soon) about my firm and investment programs and found myself sharing a few of the same thoughts, over and over. “Managing the ASYMMETRY®… Read More
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Tomorrow’s Newspaper: the Future, Part One
People often ask me questions of the future. I guess they figure I have such a strong track record, I must know something about the future. I paused my time machine, the rest of the… Read More