Category: Global Asset Allocation
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Fundamental Valuation: Is the Stock Market Cheap or Expensive?
For me, and everyone else even if they don’t realize it, the price trend is the final arbiter. For more than two decades, I’ve focused my efforts on developing systems to identify trends early in… Read More
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The longest economic expansion in U.S. history is over, but…
As the US and and global economies are entering a recession, this is when I start actively monitoring global macro-economic trends. My investment and tactical trading decisions are informed by directional price trends, momentum, volatility,… Read More
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Global Asset Allocation: Risk and reward isn’t a knob we turn to get what we want.
I don’t believe I know anyone who invests all of their money in the stock market, all the time. In order to invest all of your money in the stock market all the time, you’d… Read More
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Global Macro: is the coronavirus outbreak crushing the China ETF and causing the volatility expansion?
The past five days have been a little choppy in price action. If you’ve been following my observations, it should be a surprise as a volatility expansion was expected. The VIX CBOE S&P 500 Volatility… Read More
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Why invest globally?
Why invest in international markets? someone asked. Go back to 2007 and it was more obvious. I remember just the opposite questioned posed then; why not invest it all in Emerging Markets? Of course, that… Read More
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Asymmetry in yield spreads, inverted yield curve warning shot, and unemployment
The 10-2 Treasury Yield Spread is the difference between the 10-year treasury rate and the 2-year treasury rate. A 10-2 treasury spread that approaches zero indicates a “flattening” yield curve. A flattening yield curve is… Read More
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Global Asset Allocation had a strong year in 2019, but…
People don’t usually invest all their money in equities, even though the stock market is mostly what we talk about. Large institutional investors like pensions and endowments don’t invest all their capital in the stock… Read More
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Active management and tactical allocation isn’t the only method with “strategy risk” as global asset allocation can get off track, too
Most investors, individual and institutional, apply some kind of asset allocation method to a portfolio mix of cash, bonds, and stocks. The most diversified also invest internationally, so their portfolio is global. The most common… Read More
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I don’t always comment on economic indicators, but when I do, it’s a trend like ISM Manufacturing Index
The ISM Manufacturing Index monitors changes in production levels from month to month and is considered an important economic indicator by many global macro investment managers. Some of them consider a level above 50 as… Read More
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Argentina stock market loss is a reminder of single country ETF risk
If we looked at the MSCI Argentina ETF on July 4th, its gains year to date were astonishing. Below is a chart of both iShares MSCI Argentina & Global Exposure ETF (AGT) and Global X… Read More