Category: Stock Momentum
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Stock Market Resumes Downtrend
The U.S. stock market as measured by the S&P 500 stock index, has trended down from a lower high. The S&P is not yet oversold, and implied volatility is around 20%, which is the prior… Read More
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So far, 2020 has shown us some fine examples of risk, investor sentiment, divergence, and volatility
Implied volatility, as measured by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has trended up about 50% since the most recent low on June 5th. I’ll call it a moderate volatility expansion. Normally a volatility expansion from… Read More
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Is the panic selling drying up?
After yesterday’s continued selling pressure, only 7% of the S&P 500 stocks remain in uptrends as measured by the 50-day moving average. As most stocks are participating in the downtrend, this breadth measure is about… Read More
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The stock index falls below its long-term trend, but stocks are now getting oversold
The stock index falls below its long-term trend, but just as stocks are getting oversold. The 200-day moving average was about 11% below the high February 19th, just eight days ago. As you can see… Read More
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Dow Jones is down -10% off its high
Dow Jones is down -10% off its high. I don’t pay much attention to the Dow Jones Industrial Average as it’s a price-weighted index of 30 stocks. But, the S&P 500 capitalization-weighted index of approximately… Read More
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What volatility expansions tell us about expectations for stock market trends
A volatility expansion implies that stock prices are expected to spread out more, as measured by the (VIX) CBOE Volatility Index. Currently, it’s at 28, which would imply a 28% expected volatility over the next… Read More
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Stock market recoveries are a process, not an event
After yesterday’s close, the popular stock market indexes, including the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and NASDAQ were down around -3% for the day. Adding volatility bands around the price trend and its 20… Read More
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What really drives stock prices down?
What really drives stock prices? The price of stocks, just like groceries, is driven by supply and demand of people “the market” buying and selling. What drives stock prices and the stock market really is… Read More
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Can an optimistic investor sentiment measured by the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey trend higher?
Someone asked: Can an optimistic investor sentiment in AAII Investor Sentiment Survey trend higher? Another commented: The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey is just over its long term average, so it has room to run. Of… Read More
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Implied volatility as measured by VIX indicates a volatility expansion in the near term
Implied volatility as measured by VIX indicates wider prices in the near term. The CBOE Volatility Index VIX has increased to 20, which is it’s long term average, suggesting prices will spread out to 20%.… Read More