Category: Positive Asymmetry
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The Smart Money Method: How to pick stocks like a hedge fund pro – on Asymmetric Payoffs
One of my recent reads is The Smart Money Method: How to pick stocks like a hedge fund pro (November 24, 2020) by Stephen Clapham. Naturally, when he mentioned “Asymmetric Pay-offs” I have to share the… Read More
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Bolted to the chair
Mark Twain’s mother said: “I only wish Mark had spent more time making money rather than just writing about it”. I am no Mark Twain. I’m a tactical trader, so that’s my first purpose. I’m… Read More
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Volatility is expanding, a little
To no surprise, the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index that represents the market’s expectation of 30-day forward-looking volatility, is trending up. So far, it isn’t much of a volatility expansion, but it’s elevated somewhat higher… Read More
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Asymmetry in yield spreads, inverted yield curve warning shot, and unemployment
The 10-2 Treasury Yield Spread is the difference between the 10-year treasury rate and the 2-year treasury rate. A 10-2 treasury spread that approaches zero indicates a “flattening” yield curve. A flattening yield curve is… Read More
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A few observations on Global Macro and Trend Following
A few observations on #GlobalMacro and #TrendFollowing As I see it, trend following can be global macro and global macro can be trend following. I call my primary strategy “global tactical,” which is an unconstrained,… Read More
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Welcome to March! A review of global asset allocation and global markets
In the first two months of 2019 global asset allocation has gained 4% to 8.6%. I use the iShares Core Global Allocation ETFs as a proxy instead of indexes since the ETFs are real world performance including… Read More
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To Know Where You’re Going, Look at Where You’ve Been: The 2018 Year in Review
I write my observations of trends and market conditions every day, though I only share some of them on ASYMMETRY® Observations. The advantage of writing observations as we see them is we can go back… Read More
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The Death Cross on the S&P 500
I wonder when we’ll start hearing about the death cross again like we did in 2016. The S&P 500 Equal Weight signaled a death cross today. As with any trend following signal or any signal… Read More
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Will the stock market hold the line?
The popular U.S. stock market indexes almost formed a potential inverse head and shoulders reversal pattern, however, the right side was met with selling pressure that exceeded enthusiasm to buy. For those who care to… Read More
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Here comes the volatility expansion
Nine days ago in VIX level shows market’s expectation of future volatility I shared an observation that the implied volatility VIX, a measure of expected future volatility that is implied by option prices, had reached an extremely low… Read More