Category: Systematic Global Macro
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Lower Odds of a US Recession
See the note: Goldman Sachs Lowers its US Recession Probability. Read More
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Inflation is Declining According to this Trend Analysis of Commodities
In economics, inflation is an increase in the prices of goods and services in an economy. When the general price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services; consequently, inflation corresponds to… Read More
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Fundamental Valuation: Is the Stock Market Cheap or Expensive?
For me, and everyone else even if they don’t realize it, the price trend is the final arbiter. For more than two decades, I’ve focused my efforts on developing systems to identify trends early in… Read More
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The 10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread Continues to Indicate a Warning of a Possible Recession
In Following the Trend of Inflation and Risk of Bonds I mentioned we are closely monitoring the 10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread because an inverted yield curve has a track record of predicting future recessions 6… Read More
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Observations of the Unemployment Trend
The US Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of total employees in the United States that are a part of the labor force, but are without a job. It’s one of the most widely followed indicators… Read More
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Has the economy lost momentum?
I pay more attention to macroeconomic trends when we are in a recession. Though my tactical investment decisions are driven by the direction of price trends, momentum, sentiment, and volatility, it’s useful to take a… Read More
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The US Unemployment Situation is Stunning
US Initial Jobless Claims, provided by the US Department of Labor, provides underlying data on how many new people have filed for unemployment benefits in the previous week. We can gauge economic conditions with respect… Read More
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Global Macro Trends: Eurozone Economic Sentiment, US Home Sales, Texas Manufacturing Business Activity, and Retail Gas Price
Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator is reversing back up off its lowest level ever at a current level of 75.70, up 12.15% from last month and -26.43% from one year ago. It’s way below average, but… Read More
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Global Macro: Signs of bullish sentiment across the globe
In some cases, the recovery of economic and market trends are as impressive as the rate in which they fell. The so-called “panic button” indicator, TED Spread, is back down to low levels. The chart… Read More
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Global Macro Trends: Extreme asymmetric observations and changes
Macroeconomics is a branch of economics dealing with the performance, structure, behavior, and decision-making of an economy as a whole. Macroeconomics is the part of economics focused on the big picture: analyzing economic phenomena such… Read More