Category: Volatility Expansion
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Is the volatility expansion over?
Using the S&P 500 stock index as a proxy for the stock market, today we saw a modest uptick. It’s now back within a normal range. Realized volatility as measured by the average true range… Read More
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A volatility expansion seems imminent
On November 16th, about two weeks ago, I shared an observation in “Periods of low volatility are often followed by volatility expansions” that implied and realized volatility had reached such a low level we should… Read More
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Periods of low volatility are often followed by volatility expansions
I like uptrends, until the end when they bend. This uptrend in U.S. stocks hasn’t seemed ready to bend, but we are observing signs a reversal down could be soon. I’m not necessarily talking about… Read More
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The stock market is in a period of indecision that it will break out of
As I’ve been pointing out all month in August, the stock market is in a period of indecision, that it will eventually break out of. Looking at the price trend of the S&P 500 index… Read More
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Technical analysis of the stock trend and volatility
Just yesterday I shared the observation in The value of technical analysis of stock market trends that the stock indexes were in a tight range the past month and we’d likely see a breakout, up or down. I… Read More
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The volatility expansion is here…
Since I mentioned it a week ago, volatility has indeed expanded. In fact, it’s increased 32% today alone. Implied volatility as observed by the VIX has almost doubled the level it was a week ago.… Read More
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Measuring the volatility expansion
To no surprise, we are observing a volatility expansion. I say it isn’t a surprise, because I shared my observation on July 28th in Is volatility setting up for an expansion? the following: I’m not going… Read More
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Now we’re seeing some volatility expansion
I suggested in Is volatility setting up for an expansion? we may see volatility increase. Sure enough, implied volatility, as measured by the VIX, has trended up from 12.16 to 15.30, which implies the expected volatility… Read More
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Is volatility setting up for an expansion?
I’m not going to be surprised if we see a VIX volatility expansion this week along with the range of stock prices spreading out. There are plenty of potential catalysts that could drive volatility and… Read More
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The normal noise of the market?
We shouldn’t be surprised to see stock prices pull back closer to their average true range in the days ahead. Such a pullback or stall would be normal. Below I highlight the strong momentum Technology… Read More