Category: VIX ETF ETN ETP
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Expect wider price swings in a volatility expansion
I know, it sounds obvious, but yeah, expect wider price swings in a volatility expansion. The CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) is a popular measure of the stock market’s expectation of volatility based on… Read More
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What volatility expansions tell us about expectations for stock market trends
A volatility expansion implies that stock prices are expected to spread out more, as measured by the (VIX) CBOE Volatility Index. Currently, it’s at 28, which would imply a 28% expected volatility over the next… Read More
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19 is the new 20, but is this a new low volatility regime?
We used to say the long term average for the Cboe Volatility Index VIX is 20. Some would mistakenly say that VIX “reverts to the mean”, suggesting it is drawn to the average level of… Read More
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Volatility is trying to settle down
The Cboe Volatility Index VIX is back to its average of 15 over the past year, which implies volatility of 15% for the S%P 500 for the next 30 days based on options prices. Indexes… Read More
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How low can implied volatility VIX go?
Volatility measures the frequency and magnitude of changes, both up and down, that we experience over a certain period of time. When we speak of volatility in the financial markets, we necessarily mean the magnitude… Read More
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What I’m reading into the new year
“Those who forget the past are doomed to repeat it” One of the advantages of writing observations in real-time is the ability to go back and read them with perfect hindsight. We know that global asset… Read More
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Investor sentiment signals greed is driving stocks as the U.S. stock market reaches short term risk of a pullback
The Fear & Greed Index reaches the Extreme Greed level as I got a short term countertrend sell or hedge signal for U.S. stocks. Investors are driven by two emotions: fear and greed. Too much… Read More
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The stock market is in a period of indecision that it will break out of
As I’ve been pointing out all month in August, the stock market is in a period of indecision, that it will eventually break out of. Looking at the price trend of the S&P 500 index… Read More
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Technical analysis of the stock trend and volatility
Just yesterday I shared the observation in The value of technical analysis of stock market trends that the stock indexes were in a tight range the past month and we’d likely see a breakout, up or down. I… Read More
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Measuring the volatility expansion
To no surprise, we are observing a volatility expansion. I say it isn’t a surprise, because I shared my observation on July 28th in Is volatility setting up for an expansion? the following: I’m not going… Read More