ASYMMETRY® Observations
ASYMMETRY® Observations are Mike Shell’s observations of all things asymmetry, asymmetric risk/reward, asymmetric payoffs, and asymmetric investment returns.
Original thinking on markets, risk, and asymmetric investing — delivered the moment it publishes.
Read the latest.
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Asymmetries in Information, Risk, and Payoff: Understanding Market Behavior and Decision-Making
Asymmetries drive everything. Whether in markets, negotiations, or daily decision-making, differences in information, risk exposure, and individual preferences shape behavior and outcomes. If we want to understand why people act…
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Exotic Car Price Trends McLaren, Lamborghini, and Porsche
Using data from CarGurus we take a peak at price trends over the last few years of Exotic cars. McLaren prices peaked in July 2022. McLaren 720s prices are trending…
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What is Risk Mitigation?
Risk mitigation? What is risk mitigation? A key ingredient of Asymmetry® is in the directing, limiting, or controlling the possibility of loss or the magnitude of a potential loss. Risk…
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What is Convexity?
Convexity is a concept that originates from mathematics and is widely used in various fields, including finance, optimization, and geometry. In the context of mathematics, a set is considered convex…
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Citi Panic Euphoria Model Remains Elevated
We actively monitor several investor sentiment gauges that indicate how optimistic or pessimistic investors are about the stock market. One of the sentiment indicators we monitor is the Citigroup Panic/Euphoria Model.…
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Implied Volatility is Often Overstated Relative to Realized Volatility
Volatility measures the frequency and magnitude of price movements, both up and down, that a stock, bond, commodity, or currency market experiences over time. The more dramatic the price swings,…
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Technically Speaking the Stock Market is at an Inflection Point
For the past 25 years, my expertise has been in applying mathematical models and quantitative methods to financial markets to determine the direction, momentum, and volatility of price trends in…
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US Dollar Trends Back Down After an Oversold Countertrend
I pointed out in Downtrend but Statistically Oversold Short-Term as Gold Turns Up the US Dollar had reached a statistically oversold level, setting up a high probability for a countrend. Below…
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Panic/Euphoria Model is Nearing Euphoria as Investors Follow the Trend
We actively monitor dozens of investor sentiment gauges. One of the sentiment indicators we monitor is the Citigroup Panic/Euphoria Model, and when it reaches an extreme, I share it here. According…
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The Divergence Between the Best and Worst Performing Sectors is 45% a Year the Last Decade, and a 20 Year High
Divergence between price trends offers active investment strategies the opportunity to capture the trends with momentum and avoid downtrends. It isn’t as easy as it sounds, but the dispersion between…
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FOMC Meeting Review: Likely the Last Interest Rate Hike
Monetary policy in the United States comprises the Federal Reserve’s actions and communications to promote maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates–the economic goals the Congress has instructed…
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Here’s what a Linear Regression Channel of the S&P GSCI® Goldman Sachs Commodity Index is Telling
S&P GSCI® Goldman Sachs Commodity Index is a composite index of commodity sector returns representing an unleveraged, long-only investment in commodity futures broadly diversified across the spectrum of commodities. According…