ASYMMETRY® Observations
ASYMMETRY® Observations are Mike Shell’s observations of all things asymmetry, asymmetric risk/reward, asymmetric payoffs, and asymmetric investment returns.
Original thinking on markets, risk, and asymmetric investing — delivered the moment it publishes.
Read the latest.
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Sector Earnings Growth and Valuation into 2024
Back in July of last year the US stock market using the S&P 500 as a proxy was down about -23% and needed a 30% gain to get back to…
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Bond Market Volatility Contraction and What it Means
The MOVE index (Merrill Lynch Options Volatility Estimate) is a market-implied measure of bond volatility similar to the CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) for stocks. Some consider it fear in the…
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Gold Volatility is Contracting; Options are a Better Relative Value
Gold volatility is contracting; options are a better deal. What is it? The Chicago Board Options Exchange Gold ETF Volatility Index (GVZ) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility implicit…
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Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey is Bullish
When the index is above zero, it indicates factory-sector growth, and when below zero, it indicates contraction. In global macro, a rising Philly Fed survey is considered a signal that…
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Goldman Sachs Lowers its US Recession Probability
At Shell Capital, our focus is pure quantitative analysis of price trends, momentum, volatility, and how global markets interact with each other. When it comes to macroeconomics, I resource macro…
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US Dollar is in a Downtrend but Statistically Oversold Short-Term as Gold Turns Up
How global capital markets interact with each other is one of the most useful parts of global macro. US Dollar is in a downtrend but statistically oversold short-term. The dollars’…
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The Probability of What’s Going to Happen Next
Probabilistically, what’s most likely to happen next is inertia; staying the same. The second highest is continuing the recent trend. The third is to reverse into a countertrend.…
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Macroeconomics Update July 7, 2023
Macro is top of mind in market phases like this, when the Federal Reserve FOMC has been raising interest rates in response to evolving macroeconomic data to tame inflation. Macro…
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U.S. Macro July 6, 2023
Macroeconomics is a branch of economics that deals with the performance, structure, behavior, and decision-making of an economy as a whole, so we monitor macro indicators. ISM Services Above Expectations…
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Why do Americans Celebrate Independence Day?
Americans celebrate Independence Day on July 4th to commemorate the adoption of the Declaration of Independence on July 4, 1776. This historic document was a formal statement by the American…
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U.S. Sector Trend Following Matrix Shows Improving Participation in the Uptrend
We’ve seen notable improvement in the breadth of stocks participating in the uptrend across multiple time frames. In the U.S. Sector Trend Following Matrix below we highlight the percentage of…
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Relative Momentum of Mega Cap Tech Stocks Needs to Fade to Bring Them Back to Historical Valuations
The NDR Elite Eight stocks (META, AMZN, NFLX, MSFT, AAPL, GOOGL, NVDA, TSLA) now make up 28.4% of the S&P 500 market cap (top chart), while its share of earnings…