Category: Absolute Return
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Why So Stock Market Focused?
Most investors and their advisors seem to speak mostly about the stock market. When they mention “the market” and I ask “what market?” they always reply “the stock market”. Why so stock market centric? It… Read More
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Stage and Valuation of the U.S. Stock Market
In The REAL Length of the Average Bull Market last year I pointed out different measures used to determine the average length of a bull market. Based on that, whether you believe the average bull market… Read More
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Bonds: The Final Bubble Frontier?
No where to turn? This time, it isn’t just that the U.S. stock indexes are very aged in one of the longest bull markets in history and trading in bubble territory at 27 times EPS.… Read More
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My 2 Cents on the Dollar
The U.S. Dollar ($USD) has gained about 20% in less than a year. We observe it first in the weekly below. The U.S. Dollar is a significant driver of returns of other markets. For example,… Read More
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Conflicted News
This is a great example of conflicted news. Which news headline is driving down stock prices today? Below is a snapshot from Google Finance:: Trying to make decisions based on news seems a very conflicted… Read More
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Asymmetric Returns of World Markets YTD
As of today, global stock, bond, commodity markets are generating asymmetric returns year to date. The graph below illustrates the asymmetry is negative for those who need these markets to go “up”. source: http://finviz.com Read More
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Asymmetric Nature of Losses and Loss Aversion
Loss Aversion: “In prospect theory, loss aversion refers to the tendency for people to strongly prefer avoiding losses than acquiring gains. Some studies suggest that losses are as much as twice as psychologically powerful as… Read More
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A Tale of Two Conditions for U.S. and International Stocks: Before and After 2008
In recent conversations with investment advisors, I notice their sentiment has shifted from “cautious and concerned” about world equity markets to “why have they underperformed”. Prior to 2013, most investors and investment advisors were concerned… Read More
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Stock Market Year-to-Date and First Quarter
So far, the U.S. stock market isn’t doing so well. And, the gains and losses over the past quarter have been asymmetric. Consumer Discretionary (12.6% of the S&P 500 index) and Healthcare (14.8% of the… Read More