Category: Adapting to Change
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Why So Stock Market Focused?
Most investors and their advisors seem to speak mostly about the stock market. When they mention “the market” and I ask “what market?” they always reply “the stock market”. Why so stock market centric? It… Read More
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Stage and Valuation of the U.S. Stock Market
In The REAL Length of the Average Bull Market last year I pointed out different measures used to determine the average length of a bull market. Based on that, whether you believe the average bull market… Read More
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My 2 Cents on the Dollar
The U.S. Dollar ($USD) has gained about 20% in less than a year. We observe it first in the weekly below. The U.S. Dollar is a significant driver of returns of other markets. For example,… Read More
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Conflicted News
This is a great example of conflicted news. Which news headline is driving down stock prices today? Below is a snapshot from Google Finance:: Trying to make decisions based on news seems a very conflicted… Read More
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Improvise, Adapt and Overcome
Over the years I’ve heard many sports analogies applied to trading and investment management like “playing offense vs. defense”. Some of them can be useful to help make a point. However, Marine Corps combat training… Read More
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Asymmetric Returns of World Markets YTD
As of today, global stock, bond, commodity markets are generating asymmetric returns year to date. The graph below illustrates the asymmetry is negative for those who need these markets to go “up”. source: http://finviz.com Read More
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Asymmetric Nature of Losses and Loss Aversion
Loss Aversion: “In prospect theory, loss aversion refers to the tendency for people to strongly prefer avoiding losses than acquiring gains. Some studies suggest that losses are as much as twice as psychologically powerful as… Read More
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A Tale of Two Conditions for U.S. and International Stocks: Before and After 2008
In recent conversations with investment advisors, I notice their sentiment has shifted from “cautious and concerned” about world equity markets to “why have they underperformed”. Prior to 2013, most investors and investment advisors were concerned… Read More
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Absolute Return: an investment objective and strategy
Absolute Return in its basic definition is the return that an asset achieves over a certain period of time. This measure looks at the appreciation or depreciation (expressed as a dollar amount or a percentage).… Read More
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Dazed and Confused?
Many investors must be dazed and confused by the global markets reaction to the Fed. I’m guessing most people would expect if the Fed signaled they are closer to a rate hike the stock and… Read More