Category: Adapting to Change
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Here comes the volatility expansion
Nine days ago in VIX level shows market’s expectation of future volatility I shared an observation that the implied volatility VIX, a measure of expected future volatility that is implied by option prices, had reached an extremely low… Read More
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VIX level shows market’s expectation of future volatility
Volatility is a measure of the frequency and magnitude of price swings up and down in a market or stock over a period of time. Lower volatility is when prices are calmer and don’t swing up and… Read More
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What trends are driving emerging markets into a bear market?
In Emerging Markets Reached a Bear Market Level we noted the emerging markets index has declined -20%, which is considered to be in bear market territory. The emerging markets index includes 24 countries classified as emerging countries. To… Read More
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The week in review shows some shifts
Much of the observations I shared last week are continuing to be more apparent this week. So, in case you missed it, this may be a good time to read them. Earnings season is tricky… Read More
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Trend following applied to stocks
A stock must be in a positive trend to earn a huge gain… A stock must be in a downtrend to produce a large loss… The common factor? the direction of the trend… That’s what… Read More
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Stock market investor optimism rises above historical average
“Optimism among individual investors about the short-term direction of the stock market rebounded, rising above its historical average.” The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey is a widely followed measure of the mood of individual investors. The… Read More
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Sector ETF Changes: Indexes aren’t so passive
Index funds and ETFs are often called “passive”, but in reality, they aren’t. Indexes change as their committees add and remove stocks or bonds from them. Though we generally know the exposure we can expect… Read More
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Is the economy, stupid?
Many investment professionals admit they are unable to “time the market.” What is “market timing,” anyway? Wikipedia says: Market timing is the strategy of making buy or sell decisions of financial assets (often stocks) by attempting to… Read More
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Global Market Trends
Looking at broad indexes for global macro trends, global stocks are flat for the year, bonds are down as much as 6%, commodities are recently trending up. At this point, U.S. stocks continue to look… Read More
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What’s going to happen next? continued
The stock market is getting a lot of attention this past week since the global stock market indexes were down as much as -4% for the MSCI EAFE Developed Countries index to the most significant… Read More