Category: Adapting to Change
-
Counting down to the New Year
Doesn’t it seem the years are flying by? It’s partially just math. It’s asymmetric! We perceive that time seems to pass faster as we age because, at four years old, a year was 25% of… Read More
-
Resolving Conflicts with Relative Strength
In “Relative Strength can be a source of conflict for Tactical Traders” I explained how two different momentum indicators are in conflict with each other and can lead to conflict in tactical trading decisions. Tactical traders… Read More
-
Relative Strength can be a source of conflict for Tactical Traders
Relative Strength can be a source of conflict for Tactical Traders. I was talking to another tactical trader who manages a hedge fund. He said: “Industrials are a leading sector, but it’s overbought”. Relative Strength is… Read More
-
VIX Trends Up 9th Biggest 1-day Move
About a week after a hedge fund manager who is popular with the media but has a poor track record of managing risk said “please stop talking about the low VIX”, it gains 44.4% in a… Read More
-
Is this the Inflection Point for Stocks?
As if the election result wasn’t enough, the U.S. stock market has surprised most people by trending up since last November. But, it has been stalling since March. The S&P 500 drifted down about -3% into… Read More
-
How Future Losses Erase Prior Gains
Someone was talking about how much the stock market is “up”. However, it’s the exit that determines the outcome. When someone talks about being “up” that doesn’t mean anything unless they have sold to realize… Read More
-
Asymmetric Volatility
Volatility is how quickly and how far data points spread out. Asymmetric is not identical on both sides, imbalanced, unequal, lacking symmetry. This time of year we are reminded of asymmetric volatility in the weather.… Read More
-
Asymmetry in the Business Cycle
The current U.S. economic expansion is now 90 months old. It is the fourth longest of the 23 expansions since 1900. The history of the U.S. business cycle is one of long summers and short… Read More
-
Investor Optimism is Reaching Extreme
As it often does, the U.S. stock market trended the complete opposite of what market pundits expected after the election. Clearly, a Presidential election can be the blame for volatility we saw this year before the… Read More
-
Investors Were Indeed Complacent…
A month ago I wrote “What is the VIX Suggesting about Investor Complacency and Future Volatility?” suggesting that options traders are paying low premiums for options because they are not so fearful of future volatility and lower… Read More