Category: Adapting to Change
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What’s going to happen next?
S&P 500 has declined to the 200-day moving average. I don’t trade the moving average, but include it as a reference for the chart. More importantly, the stock index is also near its low in… Read More
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Apparently there was more enthusiasm to sell
The U. S. stock market as measured by the S&P 500 declined -2.57%. The shorter-term investor sentiment measures suggest fear is driving the stock market. That may be a positive signal since investor sentiment gets it wrong… Read More
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The enthusiasm to sell overwhelmed the desire to buy March 19, 2018
The enthusiasm to sell overwhelmed the desire to buy. The S&P 500 stock index closed down -1.42% today. Stocks trended down most of the day and at 2:35pm it was down -2%. As you can… Read More
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My Introduction to Trend Following
I have noticed more investors are talking about “trend following” these days and more traders and advisors are calling themselves trend followers. As a professional portfolio manager who has been applying trend systems to global… Read More
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Asymmetric force was with the buyers
In Asymmetric force direction and size determines a trend, I explained how the net force of all the forces acting on a trend is the force that determines the direction. The force must be asymmetric… Read More
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Asymmetric force direction and size determines trend
In physical science, force is used to describe the motion of a push or pull. Newton’s first law of motion – sometimes referred to as the law of inertia. Newton’s first law of motion is stated as: “An object at rest stays… Read More
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Investment management can take many years of cycles and regimes to understand an edge.
It takes at minimum a full market cycle including both bull/bear markets to declare an edge in an investment management track record. But we also have different regimes. For example, each bull market can be different as… Read More
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The most important rule of trading is to play great defense, not great offense.
It is fascinating to read Market Wizards: Interviews With Top Traders published in 1989 again and see how much the portfolio management strategy of another ole boy from Tennessee is nearly identical to my own. I read the… Read More
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In remembrance of euphoria: Whatever happened to Stuart and Mr. P?
I have recently found myself reminiscing about the late 1990’s – specifically the grand euphoric year of 1999. If you aren’t sure why then maybe you aren’t paying attention. Sometimes not paying attention is a… Read More
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All Eyes are Now on the Potential Government Shutdown
If the U. S. Government shuts down, it will be the 19th time. Looking at the table below, it doesn’t seem a big deal. The table shows the 18 prior government shutdowns going back to… Read More