Category: Asymmetric Observation
Asymmetric Observation is a directional viewpoint or observation.
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You probably want to sell stocks, now
On January 11, I shared an observation “You probably want to invest in stocks” The great thing about sharing written observations is the ability to go back and read what was going on in the past… Read More
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Bolted to the chair
Mark Twain’s mother said: “I only wish Mark had spent more time making money rather than just writing about it”. I am no Mark Twain. I’m a tactical trader, so that’s my first purpose. I’m… Read More
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Coronavirus: Preparing for the worst and hoping for the best
I’m not a Physician, I am a mathematician, so I deal with trends, velocity, momentum, exponentials, and differentials. People tend to underreact to initial changes in new information and then overreact after they realize they… Read More
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This is when passive indexing becomes active
I have long said that many indexes are a black box. If we don’t know what will be added or deleted from the index in advance, the rules driving the changes must be a black… Read More
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Historic day for the stock market
Today was just a reversal of Friday’s late-day surge. The stock market is even more washed out. With the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates and buying back bonds, the long term US Treasury Index reversed… Read More
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The week in review
What a week! US Stock indexes declined over -13% this week. The S&P and Dow are in a bear market, down over -20%. Here are the observations this week, I hope you find them helpful.… Read More
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Panic selling drove a waterfall decline and washout for the stock market
Growing up in East Tennessee and the Great Smoky Mountains, I observed a lot of waterfalls. Wiki says a fall of water is an area where water flows over a vertical drop or a series… Read More
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Self-discipline, Panic Selling, and the Cycle of Emotions
At the moment, the popular US stock market indexes are down over 25% from their years year-to-date. Looking at the Cycle of Market Emotions, where do you think we are at this moment? The magnitude… Read More
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Why I’m not surprised to see such a volatility expansion
On November 15, 2019, I published “Periods of low volatility are often followed by volatility expansions” and included the below chart. The point is just as the title said, when stock prices trend up quietly,… Read More
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Profiting from the Madness of Crowds
If we want to profit from the madness of crowds, we necessarily need to believe and do different things than the crowd at the extremes. You may have heard the stock market was down a… Read More