Category: Asymmetric Observation
Asymmetric Observation is a directional viewpoint or observation.
-
We should see COVID-19 deaths peak in the next two weeks
US coronavirus new cases per day are in a downtrend, and trend in US hospitalizations is following the downtrend in new cases. Taking a closer look, here is the past 30 days. US cases per… Read More
-
COVID-19 Update for Florida; cases, hospitalizations, and rates of change
I’m in Florida, which happens to be one of the states with the highest momentum in COVID – 19 cases. So, I’m going to share my observations as I flip through the data. I’m more… Read More
-
Individual investors fear a bad outcome
Individual investors are now bearish based on the survey and expected volatility. Since 1987, the American Association of Individual Investors has asked the same simple question each week to see what direction individual investors think… Read More
-
What’s driving the stock market down
On Monday, I suggested in This is what the stock market will focus on next the stock market would start reacting to the uptrend in COVID 19 cases. Indeed, the stock market indexes seem to be… Read More
-
This is how big of an overshoot the COVID projection was
The last time I wrote about The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) COVID-19 Projections for the United States was in #FloridaMorons is trending on Twitter, so let’s take a look at the Florida Coronavirus trends… Read More
-
Jobs Report: Markets respond to positive rates of change and positive surprise
On Monday, I shared on Twitter: Today’s jobs report is a mighty fine example of the market responding to positive rates and change and surprise. The US Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of total employees… Read More
-
Should we care the S&P 500 closed above its 200-day simple moving average?
As the U.S. unemployment rate in April 2020 was 14.7%, the highest since the Great Depression, the U.S. stock market is trending up. And May’s unemployment number may be higher when it’s announced on June… Read More
-
Volatility is a measure of speed; how quickly prices spread out
Volatility is a measure of speed. As options traders, we are sensitive to the velocity of a price trend. If the market doesn’t trend with enough momentum, an options contract may have less value. Volatility… Read More
-
Global Macro: Unemployment and jobless claims make 2008 look good
US Initial Jobless Claims, provided by the US Department of Labor, provides data on how many new people have filed for unemployment benefits in the previous week. We can use initial jobless claims to gauge… Read More