Category: Asymmetric Observation
Asymmetric Observation is a directional viewpoint or observation.
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Stock Market Volatility Remains Elevated
Volatility measures the frequency and magnitude of price movements, both up and down, that a financial instrument experiences over a certain period of time. The more dramatic the price swings in that instrument, the higher… Read More
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The stock market trend is being tested
The stock market is now reaching its first short-term higher probability of a countertrend pullback. The S&P 500 stock index tapped its 200-day average and reached a short-term overbought level based on relative strength and… Read More
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Observations of the Stock Market Trend, Bond Market, and Investor Sentiment
Nothing drives investor sentiment like a strong price trend. The S&P 500 stock index is down over -20% this year, and it was down -24% YTD just two weeks ago. The stock index peaked at… Read More
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Implied volatility is indicating another possible volatility expansion
Implied volatility is indicating another possible volatility expansion. The VIX index is a calculation designed to produce a measure of a constant 30-day expected volatility of the U.S. stock market, derived from real-time, mid-quote prices of S&P 500®… Read More
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The 10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread Continues to Indicate a Warning of a Possible Recession
In Following the Trend of Inflation and Risk of Bonds I mentioned we are closely monitoring the 10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread because an inverted yield curve has a track record of predicting future recessions 6… Read More
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Extreme Bearish Investor Sentiment Eventually Becomes Bullish for the Stock Market
We measure investor sentiment in many ways from indicators that illustrate the result of investor actions from trading such as the Cboe Volatility Index® (VIX®), the first index to measure the market’s expectation of future… Read More
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Following the Trend of Inflation and Risk of Bonds
In How We’ll Know if a Recession is Imminent I said if the 10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread crosses below zero, and the yield curve becomes inverted, that’s what will signal a recession is probably imminent,… Read More
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Breadth of the Stock Market Indicates Internal Weakness and a Stealth Bear Market
I focus most of my attention on my own positions or those on my lists for portfolio management. Nothing is more telling than what the stocks on my lists that meet certain fundamental earnings growth… Read More