Category: Global Directional Trends
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US Dollar and Gold Trend
See this observation here: US Dollar is in a Downtrend but Statistically Oversold Short-Term as Gold Turns Up Read More
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U.S. Stock Market Trend Following Update
I just shared my latest observations of the U.S. stock market trend in U.S. Stock Market Trend Following as of February 18, 2023. Click here to read it. Read More
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Oops a whipsaw
I tend to focus on risk management in these occasional observations I share. My focus is on risk management because that’s my edge. If I can direct and control my possibility of loss through tactical… Read More
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U.S. Sector Trend, Momentum, and Breadth Through October 2022
Our objective is asymmetric risk/reward for asymmetric investment returns; we are unconstrained as to strategy or market. A skillful trend follower wants to catch a trend early in its stage and capitalize on it until… Read More
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The stock market trend is being tested
The stock market is now reaching its first short-term higher probability of a countertrend pullback. The S&P 500 stock index tapped its 200-day average and reached a short-term overbought level based on relative strength and… Read More
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The stock market is at an inflection point
The S&P 500 is stalling as if there is resistance at this price level, and there’s a lot of potential supply for those in a loss trap. It’s also getting overbought as measured by the… Read More
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Every new price trend begins with a countertrend
Every new price trend begins with a countertrend, and that’s true for uptrends that roll over into downtrends and downtrends that reverse into uptrends, so trend following starts with a countertrend. Technology-weighted Nasdaq 100 changed… Read More
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Inflation is Declining According to this Trend Analysis of Commodities
In economics, inflation is an increase in the prices of goods and services in an economy. When the general price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services; consequently, inflation corresponds to… Read More
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Fundamental Valuation: Is the Stock Market Cheap or Expensive?
For me, and everyone else even if they don’t realize it, the price trend is the final arbiter. For more than two decades, I’ve focused my efforts on developing systems to identify trends early in… Read More
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The 10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread Continues to Indicate a Warning of a Possible Recession
In Following the Trend of Inflation and Risk of Bonds I mentioned we are closely monitoring the 10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread because an inverted yield curve has a track record of predicting future recessions 6… Read More