Category: Global Directional Trends
-
Following the Trend of Inflation and Risk of Bonds
In How We’ll Know if a Recession is Imminent I said if the 10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread crosses below zero, and the yield curve becomes inverted, that’s what will signal a recession is probably imminent,… Read More
-
How We’ll Know if a Recession is Imminent
Recessions are officially announced long after they begin. It usually takes nine to twelve months before the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) to announce when a recession started. For example, on June 8, 2020, the… Read More
-
Nasdaq Resumes Downtrend
The Nasdaq 100 Index has failed to hold above the 200-day moving average, a longer-term trend indicator. Read More
-
Breadth of the Stock Market Indicates Internal Weakness and a Stealth Bear Market
I focus most of my attention on my own positions or those on my lists for portfolio management. Nothing is more telling than what the stocks on my lists that meet certain fundamental earnings growth… Read More
-
Learning to read the cardiograms of the market’s health
“So understand that chart reading and technical analysis is not some arcane science. It’s not black magic or astrology. Very simply, it is learning to read the cardiograms of the market’s health. Your physician runs… Read More
-
The General Market Cycle Influences Almost Every Stock
“I found that the relationship between the Average and my individual stocks was confined within certain principles, but they could not be measured exactly. From then on I made up my mind to keep watching… Read More
-
The stock market uptrend is strong, but it’s entering a higher risk level
The year 2020 has been quite a ride for most of us. It started out with the stock indexes trending up, then collapsing over -30% in March. Now, the stock market proxies are reaching new… Read More
-
Buying Climax Signals a Top in the Stock Market
There was enough buying climaxes in stocks this week to signal a short term top in the stock market. This week 596 stocks printed a buying climax, which is the most since Feb 2018. A… Read More
-
Observations of the Unemployment Trend
The US Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of total employees in the United States that are a part of the labor force, but are without a job. It’s one of the most widely followed indicators… Read More
-
The stock market tapped its prior high, then backed off
On Friday I suggested “If we’re going to see selling pressure become resistance, this is where it starts” and though this has been an incredibly resilience market, I’m seeing signs of weakness. I shared some of… Read More