Category: Global Directional Trends
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A new volatility expansion
And just like that, we have another volatility expansion. Yesterday, in Global Macro: Volatility expands and divergence between sectors I suggested “It is likely we’ll see a volatility expansion from here.” Indeed, with the VIX and… Read More
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A tale of two risk managers; trend following vs. hedging with put options
Let’s get right to it. Which do you prefer? What you see in the chart is The S&P 500 stock index, which is an unmanaged index of 500 or so stocks, weighted by their capitalization… Read More
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The longest economic expansion in U.S. history is over, but…
As the US and and global economies are entering a recession, this is when I start actively monitoring global macro-economic trends. My investment and tactical trading decisions are informed by directional price trends, momentum, volatility,… Read More
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Global Macro Trends in Uncharted Territory
I primarily focus on directional price trends, momentum, volatility, and investor sentiment. That is, until economic trends trend to extremes. Then I start observing these global macro trends. We monitor thousands and data streams and… Read More
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Panic selling drove a waterfall decline and washout for the stock market
Growing up in East Tennessee and the Great Smoky Mountains, I observed a lot of waterfalls. Wiki says a fall of water is an area where water flows over a vertical drop or a series… Read More
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Global Asset Allocation: Risk and reward isn’t a knob we turn to get what we want.
I don’t believe I know anyone who invests all of their money in the stock market, all the time. In order to invest all of your money in the stock market all the time, you’d… Read More
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I’ve been here before; stocks are entering the zone
Based on breadth and short term momentum indicators, the U.S. stock market is entering what I consider to be the green zone. The green zone is the lower risk area, which is the opposite of… Read More
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The stock index falls below its long-term trend, but stocks are now getting oversold
The stock index falls below its long-term trend, but just as stocks are getting oversold. The 200-day moving average was about 11% below the high February 19th, just eight days ago. As you can see… Read More
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Stock market recoveries are a process, not an event
After yesterday’s close, the popular stock market indexes, including the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and NASDAQ were down around -3% for the day. Adding volatility bands around the price trend and its 20… Read More
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Employment, Coronavirus, it’s just the market, doing what it does…
It seems most people probably believe the news drives the stock market. I can see why, since the news headlines want to tell a story. We like a great story. We want to hear the… Read More