Category: Global Directional Trends
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Alerian MLP Index is diverging from crude and reaching new lows
The Alerian MLP Index is an interesting trend. It’s down -61% since inception. The Alerian MLP Index is a gauge of energy infrastructure Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) whose constituents earn the majority of their cash flow… Read More
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Periods of low volatility are often followed by volatility expansions
I like uptrends, until the end when they bend. This uptrend in U.S. stocks hasn’t seemed ready to bend, but we are observing signs a reversal down could be soon. I’m not necessarily talking about… Read More
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Active management and tactical allocation isn’t the only method with “strategy risk” as global asset allocation can get off track, too
Most investors, individual and institutional, apply some kind of asset allocation method to a portfolio mix of cash, bonds, and stocks. The most diversified also invest internationally, so their portfolio is global. The most common… Read More
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The stock market has made little progress in the past two years which is a hostile condition for trend following
Until the recent breakout to new highs, the stock and bond markets have made little progress in the past two years. Below are the price trend and total return chart of the S&P 500 stock… Read More
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Global Macro Observations of Stock and Bond Market Trends and Volatility
The U.S. stock market indices are finally reaching new highs, but momentum indicators show them getting overbought at the same time. Nevertheless, the trend is up and volatility is declining as the trend of the… Read More
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I don’t always comment on economic indicators, but when I do, it’s a trend like ISM Manufacturing Index
The ISM Manufacturing Index monitors changes in production levels from month to month and is considered an important economic indicator by many global macro investment managers. Some of them consider a level above 50 as… Read More
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Global Macro observations and the period of indecision ends with an upside breakout in stocks
In the last observation, The stock market is in a period of indecision that it will break out of I shared: Looking at the price trend of the S&P 500 index over the past six… Read More
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The stock market is in a period of indecision that it will break out of
As I’ve been pointing out all month in August, the stock market is in a period of indecision, that it will eventually break out of. Looking at the price trend of the S&P 500 index… Read More
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The S&P 500 stock market index is holding the line
The stock index is holding the line so far. You can see the percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50 day moving average closed at 30% last week. It’s also testing a low… Read More
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Technical analysis of the stock trend and volatility
Just yesterday I shared the observation in The value of technical analysis of stock market trends that the stock indexes were in a tight range the past month and we’d likely see a breakout, up or down. I… Read More