Category: Systematic Global Macro
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Commodities are trending with better momentum than stocks
Commodities are trending with better momentum than stocks over the past year. A commodity is a raw material or primary agricultural product that can be bought and sold, such as copper or coffee. A commodity is a basic… Read More
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Is this correction and volatility normal?
With perfect hindsight, we now all know that January 26th was the recent price peak in the U.S. stock market. Since then, the S&P 500 has declined about -10% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average… Read More
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What’s going to happen next?
S&P 500 has declined to the 200-day moving average. I don’t trade the moving average, but include it as a reference for the chart. More importantly, the stock index is also near its low in… Read More
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The enthusiasm to sell overwhelmed the desire to buy March 19, 2018
The enthusiasm to sell overwhelmed the desire to buy. The S&P 500 stock index closed down -1.42% today. Stocks trended down most of the day and at 2:35pm it was down -2%. As you can… Read More
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Asymmetric force was with the buyers
In Asymmetric force direction and size determines a trend, I explained how the net force of all the forces acting on a trend is the force that determines the direction. The force must be asymmetric… Read More
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Betting on price momentum
“Don’t fight the tape.” “Make the trend your friend.” “Cut your losses and let your winners run.” “These Wall Street maxims all mean the same thing—bet on price momentum. Of all the beliefs on Wall… Read More
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Investment management can take many years of cycles and regimes to understand an edge.
It takes at minimum a full market cycle including both bull/bear markets to declare an edge in an investment management track record. But we also have different regimes. For example, each bull market can be different as… Read More
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Stock pickers market? Sector rotation with stocks for asymmetric reward to risk
After yesterdays 1.1% gain for the S&P 500, it is back in positive territory for the year. It’s been a very volatile start for 2018 with an abnormally strong trend in U.S. stocks late 2017 continued in… Read More
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Buying demand dominated selling pressure in the stock market
Past performance is no guarantee of future results and that was the case today. After last weeks Selling pressure overwhelms buying demand for stocks for the third day in a row the enthusiasm to buy overwhelmed the desire to sell.… Read More
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February Global Market Trends
After a very positive January for U.S. and international stocks, in February it only took 10 days for the S&P 500 to decline -12% intraday and a -10% drawdown based on closing price. Yet, February… Read More