VIX Futures Still in Backwardation: What This Shift Tells Us Now
The VIX futures curve continues to send a clear message: volatility remains elevated, and the market still expects it to fade—but not just yet.
As of today, the spot VIX Index is at 42.65, while the front-month VIX future (April) is at 34.94. That’s a nearly 8-point gap, or about a 19% premium of spot over front-month futures.
In short, the curve is still in backwardation—just less extreme than it was a few days ago.
What the Term Structure Is Telling Us
- Spot VIX remains well above every futures contract from April through November.
- The curve slopes downward, from 34.94 in April to 22.40 in November.
- The market is still pricing in elevated short-term fear that it expects to fade over time.
This reflects a dynamic we often see in volatility events: front-loaded fear, followed by an assumption that conditions will stabilize in the coming months.
What It’s Not Telling Us
This is not a sign that the volatility event has ended.
If the volatility spike were over, we’d expect to see:
- Spot VIX collapsing.
- Futures flattening or shifting into contango.
- The front of the curve pulling higher relative to the back.
But we’re not seeing that yet.
Spot is still elevated. The curve is still sloped downward. We’re still in the fear regime.
No Asymmetric Edge Yet on Short Vol
This setup—spot > entire curve—remains a danger zone for short volatility.
Yes, the market expects VIX to mean revert. But until spot begins to converge toward the curve, there is no clear asymmetric short-volatility setup.
The asymmetric trade comes after the volatility spike starts to unwind—not before.
Until then, short vol remains a trade with uncapped downside and little-to-no edge.
The Bottom Line
- Spot VIX = 42.65
- Front-month future = 34.94
- Curve still in backwardation, but less extreme
- Market still in a volatility regime
- No edge yet for short vol trades
As always, the edge lies in waiting for volatility to start collapsing, not guessing when the collapse will begin.
Until then, we wait.