facebook twitter instagram linkedin google youtube vimeo tumblr yelp rss email podcast phone blog search brokercheck brokercheck Play Pause



ASYMMETRY® Observations are Mike Shell’s observations of all things asymmetry, asymmetric risk/reward, asymmetric payoffs, and asymmetric investment returns.

Asymmetry vs. Velocity in Gold and Silver Thumbnail

Asymmetry vs. Velocity in Gold and Silver

Gold and silver are expressing very different forms of asymmetry. Gold reflects slow-moving structural convexity tied to policy risk, while silver’s explosive moves are driven by liquidity squeezes and regulatory uncertainty. The opportunity isn’t prediction — it’s understanding the risk geometry.

Read More
Asymmetry Is Defined by Downside, Not Upside Thumbnail

Asymmetry Is Defined by Downside, Not Upside

Asymmetry in investing is often misunderstood as large upside potential. In reality, true asymmetric risk/reward is defined by controlled downside, not imagined gains. Without a clearly defined loss, upside narratives are irrelevant because unbounded risk dominates long-term outcomes. Asymmetry begins with survival.

Read More
Why Bitcoin Itself Lacks Asymmetric Risk/Reward Thumbnail

Why Bitcoin Itself Lacks Asymmetric Risk/Reward

Does the cryptocurrency Bitcoin offer an asymmetric risk/reward payoff? Cryptocurrencies are often described as offering asymmetric upside and asymmetric risk/reward payoff, but that claim confuses volatility with structure. True asymmetry isn’t about how far an asset can go up. It’s about whether the downside is explicitly defined and limited before outcomes are known. Spot crypto exposure is essentially linear, fully exposed to drawdowns, and lacks built-in convexity. Without predefined loss limits, position sizing, or payoff engineering, there is no asymmetric risk/reward, only a narrative riding a volatility regime.

Read More
When “Tax-Free” Isn’t Free — and When It Is Thumbnail

When “Tax-Free” Isn’t Free — and When It Is

When do tax-exempt money market funds actually deliver an edge? This Asymmetry Observation breaks down the after-tax math behind taxable vs. tax-exempt cash yields, explains why “tax-free” often isn’t free, and shows how marginal tax rates and state taxes determine when the geometry finally flips.

Read More
Investors Own Capital. We Actively Manage Exposure Thumbnail

Investors Own Capital. We Actively Manage Exposure

Asymmetric investing vs. trading is misunderstood. Our clients are investors, but as we manage their portfolios, we are tactical position traders We don’t day trade, and we don’t buy and hold blindly. In pursuit of asymmetric returns, we make deliberate buy and sell decisions to manage risk, adapt to changing conditions, and preserve capital through full market cycles.

Read More
Why Structural Change Doesn’t Guarantee Asymmetric Alpha Thumbnail

Why Structural Change Doesn’t Guarantee Asymmetric Alpha

Structural change can be obvious in the data and still fail to deliver asymmetric returns. Retail sales clearly migrated online, yet the equity trades tied to that shift stopped compounding once the market fully priced it. This observation explains why being right on fundamentals isn’t enough — true asymmetry exists only before consensus forms.

Read More