Asymmetric Investment Returns is a blog authored by Mike Shell since 2006, covering topics about asymmetric investing and trading for asymmetric risk/reward in pursuit of asymmetry.
Discover how AVWAP analysis reveals selling pressure in the U.S. Dollar Index. Learn why price below anchored volume-weighted averages signals asymmetric risk, underwater positioning, and potential downside continuation—without forecasting.
We pursue what we refer to as "drawdown control" through individual position risk management, portfolio heat limits, and portfolio hedging for risk mitigation.
Investment Drawdowns from Market Losses Work Geometrically Against You Losses don’t scale linearly—they scale exponentially in how they hurt compounding.
BREADTH THRUST: As of April 24, 2025, all three major Bullish Percent Indexes have confirmed significant upward reversals in participation, with the Nasdaq Bullish Percent exploding higher in a breadth thrust.
The VIX futures curve continues to send a clear message: volatility remains elevated, and the market still expects it to fade—but not just yet.
To compound capital efficiently over time, downside risk must be actively mitigated. The key to long-term wealth creation isn’t just capturing upside—it’s protecting capital through asymmetric risk/reward positioning and strict portfolio risk exposure limits.