Asymmetric Investment Returns is a blog authored by Mike Shell since 2006, covering topics about asymmetric investing and trading for asymmetric risk/reward in pursuit of asymmetry.
“The exit, not the entry, always determines the outcome. The exit determines if you win or lose, and how much you win or lose.” — Mike Shell
The steep contango in the VIX futures curve signals market complacency—but also reveals an asymmetric opportunity. This post explores how volatility suppression breeds fragility, why tail risk is mispriced during calm regimes, and how long-volatility positions can deliver convex payoffs when the curve snaps.
Why Is the Stock Market Down Today? The stock market is trading lower today as a mix of weak economic data, aggressive new tariffs, and stretched valuations shake investor confidence.
S&P 500 dividend yield has fallen to 1.25%, near a 20-year low. Discover what this means for equity risk, valuation, and how Shell Capital structures portfolios for asymmetric returns in today’s high-risk, low-reward environment.
Asymmetric returns aren’t found in undervalued stocks—they’re engineered through structured trades with defined risk and convex upside. Learn how.
Discover how AVWAP analysis reveals selling pressure in the U.S. Dollar Index. Learn why price below anchored volume-weighted averages signals asymmetric risk, underwater positioning, and potential downside continuation—without forecasting.