ASYMMETRY® Observations are Mike Shell’s observations of all things asymmetry, asymmetric risk/reward, asymmetric payoffs, and asymmetric investment returns.
Be a trend follower; always sell what shows you a loss and keep what shows you a profit.
When short-term interest rates fall, we can expect the dollar may fall.
Financial crises occur about once a decade, with each one getting larger than the last.
Trend analysis of the U.S. stock market trend using the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index
US Pending Home Sales Crash By Most On Record
The stock market, as measured by the S&P 500, needs to hold this key level to retain the short term uptrend.
JP Morgan's outlook focuses on three very different scenarios, with a baseline (40% probability) of seeing the building drag from an expected 5% fed funds rate and a rising US dollar as sufficient to tip the economy into a mild recession late next year.
The flash PMI data for November disappointed and looked pretty pessimistic.
Liquidity drives returns and the damage is not done yet
The global yield curve is indicating a recession for the first time in two decades.