Category: Asymmetric Investment Returns
Asymmetric Investment Returns is a risk and reward profile with more upside profit than downside risk or loss.
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Self-discipline, Panic Selling, and the Cycle of Emotions
At the moment, the popular US stock market indexes are down over 25% from their years year-to-date. Looking at the Cycle of Market Emotions, where do you think we are at this moment? The magnitude… Read More
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Profiting from the Madness of Crowds
If we want to profit from the madness of crowds, we necessarily need to believe and do different things than the crowd at the extremes. You may have heard the stock market was down a… Read More
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I’ve been here before; stocks are entering the zone
Based on breadth and short term momentum indicators, the U.S. stock market is entering what I consider to be the green zone. The green zone is the lower risk area, which is the opposite of… Read More
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Investor sentiment is dialed up with stock trends
I believe there are many factors that drive stock prices and one of them is investor sentiment. However, enthusiasm and panic can also reach extremes, which drives the opposite trend. When investors are extremely bullish… Read More
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How will the conflict with Iran impact global equity markets?
On December 30th someone tweeted the headline: IRAN WARNS U.S. ITS MIDDLE EAST DOMINANCE IS OVER AFTER NAVAL DRILLS WITH RUSSIA, CHINA I replied and shared the link to the Newsweek article about the threat… Read More
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Why invest globally?
Why invest in international markets? someone asked. Go back to 2007 and it was more obvious. I remember just the opposite questioned posed then; why not invest it all in Emerging Markets? Of course, that… Read More
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The challenge of backtesting and systematic trading and how to get past it
I’m going to make this observation a challenge of my brevity because this is a topic I could write a book on if I sat still long enough. So, this is by no means going… Read More
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Can an optimistic investor sentiment measured by the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey trend higher?
Someone asked: Can an optimistic investor sentiment in AAII Investor Sentiment Survey trend higher? Another commented: The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey is just over its long term average, so it has room to run. Of… Read More
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Why we row, not sail
When a market is rising, we can let out the sail and enjoy the ride, but when the wind stops, we row, not sail. I started using this analogy in 2005 after reading my friend… Read More
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Investor sentiment signals greed is driving stocks as the U.S. stock market reaches short term risk of a pullback
The Fear & Greed Index reaches the Extreme Greed level as I got a short term countertrend sell or hedge signal for U.S. stocks. Investors are driven by two emotions: fear and greed. Too much… Read More