Category: Asymmetric Investment Returns
Asymmetric Investment Returns is a risk and reward profile with more upside profit than downside risk or loss.
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Observations of the stock market decline and volatility expansion
On September 25th I shared in VIX level shows market’s expectation of future volatility when I pointed out a low level of expected volatility as implied by the VIX index. I said: The current level of the… Read More
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Stanley Druckenmiller on his use of Technical Analysis and Instinct
Stanley Druckenmiller has a 30-year track record that is considered “unrivaled” by many. From 1988 to 2000, Druckenmiller was a portfolio manager for George Soros as the lead portfolio manager for Quantum Fund. He founded Duquesne Capital… Read More
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The Big Picture Stock and Bond Market Valuation and Outlook
Wondering what to expect from this starting point for stocks and bonds? The starting point matters. From this starting point, the expected return is a calculation of earnings growth, dividend yield, and P/E ratio. Below… Read More
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The week in review shows some shifts
Much of the observations I shared last week are continuing to be more apparent this week. So, in case you missed it, this may be a good time to read them. Earnings season is tricky… Read More
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Front-running S&P 500 Resistance
The S&P 500 stock index closed just -1% from its all-time high it reached on January 26, 2018, and hasn’t been that high since. It’s been in a drawdown that was as much as -10% and… Read More
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Earnings season is tricky for momentum growth stocks
Momentum stocks are stocks that show high upside momentum in their price trend. Momentum stocks are trending not only regarding their absolute price gains but also relative strength vs. other stocks or the stock market… Read More
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Asymmetry of Loss: Why Manage Risk?
“The essence of portfolio management is the management of risks, not the management of returns.” —Benjamin Graham Why actively manage investment risk? Why not just buy and hold markets and ride through their large drawdowns?… Read More
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Is it a stock pickers market?
Sometimes the stock market is trending so strongly that the rising tide lifts all boats. No matter what stocks or stock fund you invest in, it goes up. That was the case much of 2017.… Read More
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Commodities are trending with better momentum than stocks
Commodities are trending with better momentum than stocks over the past year. A commodity is a raw material or primary agricultural product that can be bought and sold, such as copper or coffee. A commodity is a basic… Read More
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Is the economy, stupid?
Many investment professionals admit they are unable to “time the market.” What is “market timing,” anyway? Wikipedia says: Market timing is the strategy of making buy or sell decisions of financial assets (often stocks) by attempting to… Read More