Category: Asymmetric Investment Returns
Asymmetric Investment Returns is a risk and reward profile with more upside profit than downside risk or loss.
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Global Market Trends
Looking at broad indexes for global macro trends, global stocks are flat for the year, bonds are down as much as 6%, commodities are recently trending up. At this point, U.S. stocks continue to look… Read More
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What’s going to happen next? continued
The stock market is getting a lot of attention this past week since the global stock market indexes were down as much as -4% for the MSCI EAFE Developed Countries index to the most significant… Read More
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Apparently there was more enthusiasm to sell
The U. S. stock market as measured by the S&P 500 declined -2.57%. The shorter-term investor sentiment measures suggest fear is driving the stock market. That may be a positive signal since investor sentiment gets it wrong… Read More
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Asymmetric force was with the buyers
In Asymmetric force direction and size determines a trend, I explained how the net force of all the forces acting on a trend is the force that determines the direction. The force must be asymmetric… Read More
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Investment management can take many years of cycles and regimes to understand an edge.
It takes at minimum a full market cycle including both bull/bear markets to declare an edge in an investment management track record. But we also have different regimes. For example, each bull market can be different as… Read More
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Stock pickers market? Sector rotation with stocks for asymmetric reward to risk
After yesterdays 1.1% gain for the S&P 500, it is back in positive territory for the year. It’s been a very volatile start for 2018 with an abnormally strong trend in U.S. stocks late 2017 continued in… Read More
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The most important rule of trading is to play great defense, not great offense.
It is fascinating to read Market Wizards: Interviews With Top Traders published in 1989 again and see how much the portfolio management strategy of another ole boy from Tennessee is nearly identical to my own. I read the… Read More
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In remembrance of euphoria: Whatever happened to Stuart and Mr. P?
I have recently found myself reminiscing about the late 1990’s – specifically the grand euphoric year of 1999. If you aren’t sure why then maybe you aren’t paying attention. Sometimes not paying attention is a… Read More
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How Future Losses Erase Prior Gains
Someone was talking about how much the stock market is “up”. However, it’s the exit that determines the outcome. When someone talks about being “up” that doesn’t mean anything unless they have sold to realize… Read More
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March 9th is the Bull Market’s 8-Year Anniversary
I observed many headlines pointing out that March 9th is the 8th anniversary of the current bull market in U.S. stocks. The rising trend in stocks is becoming one of the longest on record. It… Read More