Category: Asymmetric Risk Reward
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The Big Picture Stock and Bond Market Valuation and Outlook
Wondering what to expect from this starting point for stocks and bonds? The starting point matters. From this starting point, the expected return is a calculation of earnings growth, dividend yield, and P/E ratio. Below… Read More
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The week in review shows some shifts
Much of the observations I shared last week are continuing to be more apparent this week. So, in case you missed it, this may be a good time to read them. Earnings season is tricky… Read More
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Front-running S&P 500 Resistance
The S&P 500 stock index closed just -1% from its all-time high it reached on January 26, 2018, and hasn’t been that high since. It’s been in a drawdown that was as much as -10% and… Read More
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Earnings season is tricky for momentum growth stocks
Momentum stocks are stocks that show high upside momentum in their price trend. Momentum stocks are trending not only regarding their absolute price gains but also relative strength vs. other stocks or the stock market… Read More
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Asymmetry of Loss: Why Manage Risk?
“The essence of portfolio management is the management of risks, not the management of returns.” —Benjamin Graham Why actively manage investment risk? Why not just buy and hold markets and ride through their large drawdowns?… Read More
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Does Your Firm Use Active ETFs?
Christi Shell was recently asked by ETF.com “Does your firm use active ETFs”. Her answer from the interview: Our portfolio manager, Mike Shell, doesn’t currently include active ETFs in our universe of tradeable ETFs, but… Read More
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Global Stock and Bond Market Trends 2Q 2018
Yesterday we shared the 2nd Quarter 2018 Global Investment Markets Review, which used a broad range of indexes on performance tables to present the year-to-date progress of world markets. The issue with a table that simply… Read More
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Is it a stock pickers market?
Sometimes the stock market is trending so strongly that the rising tide lifts all boats. No matter what stocks or stock fund you invest in, it goes up. That was the case much of 2017.… Read More
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Commodities are trending with better momentum than stocks
Commodities are trending with better momentum than stocks over the past year. A commodity is a raw material or primary agricultural product that can be bought and sold, such as copper or coffee. A commodity is a basic… Read More
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Sector Trends are Driving Equity Returns
In Growth Stocks have Stronger Momentum than Value in 2018 I explained the divergence between the return of the two styles of Growth and Value. I suggest the real return driver between size and style is primarily the… Read More