Category: ASYMMETRY® Observations

I started reading Howard Marks’s memos to clients during the 2000 bubble, when we wrote Bubble.com. In the late 1990s I was an investment adviser, advising investors on stocks and funds and how to structure… Read More

Ray Dalio and Elon Musk see the U.S. debt problem for what it is: an unsustainable ticking time bomb. They aren’t just speculating—they’re using decades of experience in finance, economics, and business to sound the… Read More

The ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) is a key measure of risk sentiment in the credit markets. Historically, extreme levels in credit spreads have preceded major shifts in market conditions, often… Read More

For more than two decades, I’ve required a mathematical basis to maintain confidence in my decisions, especially during challenging periods inherent in every investment or trading strategy. Establishing a mathematical basis for a system that… Read More

Building on last week’s market insight, “The Trend Remains Up for the Stock Market, But Risk is Increasing,” here’s my latest observations of where things stand now.  The S&P 500 remains in an uptrend, but… Read More

Goldman Sachs’ latest Hedge Fund Trend Monitor offers a deep dive into the positioning of 695 hedge funds, managing $3.1 trillion in gross equity positions. The report reveals key shifts in hedge fund strategies at… Read More

The S&P 500 stock index remains in an uptrend. No extreme bullish or bearish momentum, but price stability suggests continuation unless a significant breakout or breakdown occurs. Weak trend strength (ADX below 20) suggests the… Read More

Many investors believe they are pursuing asymmetric opportunities when they buy stocks they think are undervalued or have more upside than downside. But true asymmetry isn’t just about perceived valuation gaps—it’s about structuring risk in a way that… Read More

The MOVE index, the bond version of the VIX, is plummeting.  The chart is the ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index (MOVE Index) on a daily timeframe, with a linear regression channel… Read More

Global macro traders and hedge funds have an edge when we understand how markets interact with each other, and the U.S. Dollar is a big driver of many trends.  This chart of the U.S. Dollar… Read More