Category: Counter trend
Counter trend is a system that identifies a trend reversal without waiting for it to reverse.
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US Dollar and Gold Trend
See this observation here: US Dollar is in a Downtrend but Statistically Oversold Short-Term as Gold Turns Up Read More
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Oops a whipsaw
I tend to focus on risk management in these occasional observations I share. My focus is on risk management because that’s my edge. If I can direct and control my possibility of loss through tactical… Read More
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Stock Market Resumes Downtrend
The U.S. stock market as measured by the S&P 500 stock index, has trended down from a lower high. The S&P is not yet oversold, and implied volatility is around 20%, which is the prior… Read More
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U.S. Sector Trend, Momentum, and Breadth Through October 2022
Our objective is asymmetric risk/reward for asymmetric investment returns; we are unconstrained as to strategy or market. A skillful trend follower wants to catch a trend early in its stage and capitalize on it until… Read More
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Every new price trend begins with a countertrend
Every new price trend begins with a countertrend, and that’s true for uptrends that roll over into downtrends and downtrends that reverse into uptrends, so trend following starts with a countertrend. Technology-weighted Nasdaq 100 changed… Read More
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Fundamental Valuation: Is the Stock Market Cheap or Expensive?
For me, and everyone else even if they don’t realize it, the price trend is the final arbiter. For more than two decades, I’ve focused my efforts on developing systems to identify trends early in… Read More
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Buying Climax Signals a Top in the Stock Market
There was enough buying climaxes in stocks this week to signal a short term top in the stock market. This week 596 stocks printed a buying climax, which is the most since Feb 2018. A… Read More
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The stock market tapped its prior high, then backed off
On Friday I suggested “If we’re going to see selling pressure become resistance, this is where it starts” and though this has been an incredibly resilience market, I’m seeing signs of weakness. I shared some of… Read More
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If we’re going to see a second leg down, this is where I think it will start.
“I still had much to learn, but I knew what to do. No more floundering, no more half-right methods. Tape reading was an important part of the game; so was beginning at the right time;… Read More
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A tale of two risk managers; trend following vs. hedging with put options
Let’s get right to it. Which do you prefer? What you see in the chart is The S&P 500 stock index, which is an unmanaged index of 500 or so stocks, weighted by their capitalization… Read More