Category: Counter trend
Counter trend is a system that identifies a trend reversal without waiting for it to reverse.
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It’s official: extreme greed is driving the stock market
In Is the VIX and indication of fear and complacency? I pointed out a few reasons I believe a low VIX level can indeed be a signal of greed and complacency and a high VIX level… Read More
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The VIX, my point of view
I believe we are naturally attracted to a strategy based on our personality. I am a trend follower most of the time, until the trend gets to an extreme. That is, I identify the directional… Read More
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The VIX, as I see it…
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) reached a low point last week not seen since 2007 as evidenced by the chart below. To see a closer view of the last period, below I included the last… Read More
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Declining (Low) Volatility = Rising (High) Complacency
When we speak of trends, we want to recognize a trend can be rising or declining, high or low. These things are subjective, because there is infinite ways to define the direction of a trend,… Read More
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Investors are Complacent
Implied volatility, the amount of “insurance premium” implied by the price of options, continues to suggest that investors are becoming very complacent. When the VIX is high or rising, it says the market expects the… Read More
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What emotion is driving the market now? Extreme Greed
Today I observe the Fear and Greed Index below is at an “Extreme Greed” level. source: http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/ Investors tend to get optimistic (and greedy) after prices have gone up and then fearful after prices go… Read More
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My INVESTOR’S BUSINESS DAILY® Interview and Portfolio Management
Portfolio Management is about buying and selling many different positions over time, not just one “pick”. I often say it’s like flipping 10 coins at the same time with each having a different payoff and… Read More
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The S&P 500 Stock Index at Inflection Points
The chart below is the S&P 500 Stock Index at Inflection Points showing full market cycles since 1997 (16 years). A few observations: • You may agree there is a trend here. Several years of… Read More