Category: Counter trend
Counter trend is a system that identifies a trend reversal without waiting for it to reverse.
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Trends, Countertrends, in the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Currencies
Trend is a direction that something is moving, developing, evolving, or changing. A trend is a directional drift, one way or another. When I speak of price trends, the directional drift of a price trend… Read More
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Fed Decision and Market Reaction: Stocks and Bonds
So, I’m guessing most people would expect if the Fed signaled they are closer to a rate hike the stock and bond markets would fall. Rising interest rates typically drive down stocks along with bonds.… Read More
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“There is always a disposition in people’s minds to think that existing conditions will be permanent …
“There is always a disposition in people’s minds to think the existing conditions will be permanent,” Dow wrote, and went on to say: “When the market is down and dull, it is hard to make… Read More
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Small vs. Large Stocks: A Tale of Two Markets (Continued)
A quick follow up to my recent comments about the down trend in smaller company stocks in Playing with Relative Strength and Stock Market Peak? A Tale of Two Markets below is a chart and a few… Read More
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Are investors getting overly optimistic again?
Just as I was observing U.S. stocks getting to a point that I would expect to see stock indexes pull back at least a little or drift sideways, I noticed that investor sentiment readings last… Read More
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Stock Market Trend: reverse back down or continuation?
I normally don’t comment here on my daily observations of very short-term directional trends, though as a fund manager I’m monitoring them every day. The current bull market in stocks is aged, it’s lasted much longer… Read More
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Fear is Driving Stocks Down, or is Declining Stocks Driving Fear?
The last time I pointed out a short-term measure of extreme investor sentiment was August 4, see “Extreme Fear is Now the Return Driver“. At that time, popular stock indexes had declined -3% or more… Read More
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Trend Change in Dollar, International Stocks, Gold?
Directional trends tend to persist. When a price is trending, it’s more likely to continue than to reverse. A directional trend is a drift up or down. For example, we can simply define a uptrend… Read More
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VIX Shows Volatility Still Low, But Trending
It seemed that many of the commentators who write and talk about the VIX started talking as though it would stay down a long time. Of course, that’s as much a signal as anything that… Read More
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Business Cycle: Mean Reversion and Trends
The National Bureau of Economic Research publishes U.S. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the economy. During an expansion, economic growth is rising and during a contraction it is slowing or actually falling. Below is… Read More