Category: Counter trend
Counter trend is a system that identifies a trend reversal without waiting for it to reverse.
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A volatility expansion seems imminent
On November 16th, about two weeks ago, I shared an observation in “Periods of low volatility are often followed by volatility expansions” that implied and realized volatility had reached such a low level we should… Read More
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Alerian MLP Index is diverging from crude and reaching new lows
The Alerian MLP Index is an interesting trend. It’s down -61% since inception. The Alerian MLP Index is a gauge of energy infrastructure Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) whose constituents earn the majority of their cash flow… Read More
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Periods of low volatility are often followed by volatility expansions
I like uptrends, until the end when they bend. This uptrend in U.S. stocks hasn’t seemed ready to bend, but we are observing signs a reversal down could be soon. I’m not necessarily talking about… Read More
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The stock market has made little progress in the past two years which is a hostile condition for trend following
Until the recent breakout to new highs, the stock and bond markets have made little progress in the past two years. Below are the price trend and total return chart of the S&P 500 stock… Read More
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Global Macro Observations of Stock and Bond Market Trends and Volatility
The U.S. stock market indices are finally reaching new highs, but momentum indicators show them getting overbought at the same time. Nevertheless, the trend is up and volatility is declining as the trend of the… Read More
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What is going on? 3rd Quarter Market Trends and Mean Reversion
The third quarter is now in the past, so I’ll share a few observations of what is going on. First, below is the S&P 500 stock index over the past quarter. For observation purposes, if… Read More
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Technical analysis of the stock trend and volatility
Just yesterday I shared the observation in The value of technical analysis of stock market trends that the stock indexes were in a tight range the past month and we’d likely see a breakout, up or down. I… Read More
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Charting and technical analysis of the stock market trend
I usually share more of my observations of the stock market trend when the shit hits the fan. The truth is, I enjoy volatility expansions more than the quiet, calm trends. There isn’t as much… Read More
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Measuring the volatility expansion
To no surprise, we are observing a volatility expansion. I say it isn’t a surprise, because I shared my observation on July 28th in Is volatility setting up for an expansion? the following: I’m not going… Read More
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Trend following: no system will adapt perfectly to all conditions all the time.
I just came across this Wall Street Journal article about trend following as I was searching for something. Computer Models to Investors: Short Everything – WSJ Jan 9, 2019 – Trend–following investment strategies—a computer-based way of … Trend–following algorithms… Read More