Category: Counter trend
Counter trend is a system that identifies a trend reversal without waiting for it to reverse.
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Will the stock market hold the line? or do we keep hedging risk? and opportunity for high income yield
The U.S. stock indexes declined -6.84% for the large-cap S&500, -11% for mid caps, and about -19% for small-cap stocks mostly in the single month of May. Since June 1st, however, these same stock indexes… Read More
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The normal noise of the market?
We shouldn’t be surprised to see stock prices pull back closer to their average true range in the days ahead. Such a pullback or stall would be normal. Below I highlight the strong momentum Technology… Read More
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What has changed? Global trends, volatility expansion and contraction, plus some rising interest rates
My focus is: What has changed? if I see no change in the direction of the trend of volatility, then we just go with the flow. Realized (historical) and implied volatility (VIX) has settled down… Read More
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Putting my short-term technical analysis tactician hat on and hedging off equity risk
I’m dialing in to look at shorter-term technical analysis as my risk management systems are suggesting a risk of a stock market decline is becoming elevated. Zooming in to shorter time frames, the U.S. stock… Read More
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U.S. Stock Market Update
Last week in What’s going to happen next for the U.S. stock market? I shared an observation the U.S. stock index had reached a point I expect to see at least a stall. So far, that’s mostly… Read More
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Stock market internals are signaling an inflection point
Indicators of the internal strength of the market measure the breadth of the market trend using the number of individual stocks participating in a move. On December 24, 2018, I shared my observation in An exhaustive stock… Read More
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A Tale of Three Vols
I know, you’re thinking this is about the Tennessee Vols. Nope. Different vol. I’m not talking about Tennessee Volunteers, I’m talking about the volatility of the stock market. Someone asked: “With the S&P 500 is up 3.43%… Read More
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Investor Sentiment into the New Year 2019
Investor sentiment measures may be used as contrarian indicators. We expect the market to do the opposite of what the indicators are saying when they reach an extreme level of bullish/greed/optimism or bearish/fear/pessimism. Identifying extreme… Read More
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To Know Where You’re Going, Look at Where You’ve Been: The 2018 Year in Review
I write my observations of trends and market conditions every day, though I only share some of them on ASYMMETRY® Observations. The advantage of writing observations as we see them is we can go back… Read More
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An exhaustive stock market analysis… continued
I guess An exhaustive analysis of the U.S. stock market wasn’t exhaustive enough, because I now have a few things to add. First, since the financial news media, as well as social media like Twitter, is so bearish… Read More