Category: Global Directional Trends
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A Random Walker on Stock and Bond Valuation
Burton Malkiel is a passive buy and hold investor who believes markets are random. To believe markets are random is to believe there are no directional trends, or high or low valuations. He is the… Read More
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Seasonal Alpha? The Real Probability and Expectation of “Sell in May and Go Away”
Here is the trouble with a seasonal strategy. According to Standard & Poors, the S&P 500 has gained 1.05 % in May, though it was a volatile month. So, “sell in May and go away”… Read More
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On Actively Managing Risk… and Persistence
Source: https://image-store.slidesharecdn.com/c3d3d5ae-e2eb-4e80-9d4c-88e2344b5572-original.jpeg I just keep doing what I do… Read More
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Where is the Inflation?
In How does monetary policy influence inflation and employment? and bond prices… I pointed out that even the Fed expected their monetary policy to eventually lead to inflation. The problem with economics and economist is they… Read More
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How does monetary policy influence inflation and employment? and bond prices…
Straight from the Federal Reserve website titled How does monetary policy influence inflation and employment? In the short run, monetary policy influences inflation and the economy-wide demand for goods and services–and, therefore, the demand for… Read More
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Recent Observations: Stock Market, Volatility, Absolute Returns
In case you missed them, here is a list of popular observations I’ve shared recently: This is When MPT and VaR Get Asset Allocation and Risk Measurement Wrong A Tale of Two Conditions for U.S. and… Read More
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My 2 Cents on the Dollar, Continued…
In My 2 Cents on the Dollar I explained how the U.S. Dollar is a significant driver of returns of other markets. For example, when the U.S. Dollar is rising, commodities like gold, oil, and foreign… Read More
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Why So Stock Market Focused?
Most investors and their advisors seem to speak mostly about the stock market. When they mention “the market” and I ask “what market?” they always reply “the stock market”. Why so stock market centric? It… Read More
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Stage and Valuation of the U.S. Stock Market
In The REAL Length of the Average Bull Market last year I pointed out different measures used to determine the average length of a bull market. Based on that, whether you believe the average bull market… Read More
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My 2 Cents on the Dollar
The U.S. Dollar ($USD) has gained about 20% in less than a year. We observe it first in the weekly below. The U.S. Dollar is a significant driver of returns of other markets. For example,… Read More