Category: Global Directional Trends
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A One-Chart Preview of Today’s Fed Decision: This is what economists are expecting
I can’t image what it must be like sitting around watching and reading the news trying to figure out what the Fed is going to do next. Even if they could know, they still don’t… Read More
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Bear Markets Happen
WSJ has a nice chart of “Bear Markets” as defined as -20% drops in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Click to enlarge. Source: http://www.wsj.com/articles/how-to-prepare-for-a-bear-market-in-stocks-1425870192 Read More
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Diversification Alone is No Longer Sufficient to Temper Risk…
That was the lesson you learned the last time stocks became overvalued and the stock market entered into a bear market. In a Kiplinger article by Fred W. Frailey interviewed Mohamed El-Erian, the PIMCO’s boss,… Read More
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Sectors Showing Some Divergence…
So far, U.S. sector directional price trends are showing some divergence in 2015. Rather than all things rising, such divergence may give hints to new return drivers unfolding as well as opportunity for directional trend… Read More
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This is When MPT and VaR Get Asset Allocation and Risk Measurement Wrong
I was talking to an investment analyst at an investment advisory firm about my ASYMMETRY® Global Tactical and he asked me what the standard deviation was for the portfolio. I thought I would share with… Read More
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“There is always a disposition in people’s minds to think that existing conditions will be permanent …
“There is always a disposition in people’s minds to think the existing conditions will be permanent,” Dow wrote, and went on to say: “When the market is down and dull, it is hard to make… Read More
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Stock Investors Even More Bullish While Japan Falls into Surprise Recession
Following up with Are investors getting overly optimistic again? I pointed out that investor sentiment as measured by the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey had shifted to a point of unusually high bullishness. After prices trend up,… Read More
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Small vs. Large Stocks: A Tale of Two Markets (Continued)
A quick follow up to my recent comments about the down trend in smaller company stocks in Playing with Relative Strength and Stock Market Peak? A Tale of Two Markets below is a chart and a few… Read More
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Stock Market Trend: reverse back down or continuation?
I normally don’t comment here on my daily observations of very short-term directional trends, though as a fund manager I’m monitoring them every day. The current bull market in stocks is aged, it’s lasted much longer… Read More
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How is the market doing? Global Deflation
How are the markets doing this year? Well, it depends on what market you mean. So far 2014 has had only a few gains in world markets: coffee, cattle, cocoa, pork bellies, 30 year treasury… Read More